These games will be difference between hot seat coaches keeping jobs or being fired

Outside of the College Football Playoff debate, there may not be a more discussed college football topic than whether a coach will be fired or not.

It frames every result, too. How much did that win help the coach keep his job? Or how much did that loss hurt job security?

Entering the 2026 season, the narratives are already coming into focus. North Carolina's Bill Belichick entered the season on one of the hottest seats in the country and then went to Ireland and beat TCU . One win won't save Belichick's job but it at least provided a reason to be optimistic a bounceback season was coming after a disastrous 2025 record.

On the flip side, all it took was one loss for TCU's Sonny Dykes and North Carolina State's Dave Doeren to face criticism and questions about whether they are the right men to continue leading their programs. That's how fast things can change in college football.

We saw it play out during a wild and chaotic coaching carousel a year ago. By mid-October, Penn State , Florida and Virginia Tech had all fired their head coaches. Before the calendar turned to November, so, too, had LSU . All it can take is one or two particularly embarrassing losses to push upset boosters and university decision-makers to pull the trigger.

Which coaches are most at risk headed into the season?

Using CBS Sports' offseason hot seat rankings, which rank coaches from 0 (most secure) to 5 (win or be fired), these are the five coaches on the proverbial hottest seats headed into Week 1. The difference between returning for the 2027 season and heading to the unemployment line could only be a couple games.

With that in mind, these are the make-or-break games.

Key games: Week 1 vs. Auburn (in Atlanta), Week 7 vs. TCU, Week 11 at BYU

In a crowded coaching carousel last season, Dave Aranda just managed to hold onto his job despite a 5-7 finish. With a new athletic director at the helm, however, another 5-7 record isn't expected to get him to 2027. Aranda will have to improve and that starts in Week 1 against first-year coach Alex Golesh's Auburn Tigers. Baylor lost to Auburn in its season opener a year ago, and could really benefit from getting off to a hot start.

If Baylor can beat Auburn, it's reasonable to expect the Bears to be sitting at 5-0 or 4-1 headed into that TCU game. With as bad as TCU looked against UNC, that has to be another win for Aranda.

A road trip to BYU on Nov. 14 could be the toughest game on the schedule. If Baylor is 8-1 already, it won't matter quite as much. But if Aranda trips up against Arizona State or Kansas , he may need to win a game or two from this arduous three-game slate to finish the season: at BYU, Texas Tech , at Houston . As much cushion as Aranda can give himself before those games, the better shot he has at keeping his job.

Key games: Week 1 vs. SMU, Week 5 vs. Virginia , Week 9 vs. Clemson

An ugly Week 0 win over New Mexico State did nothing to solidify Mike Norvell's job security at Florida State . The Seminoles have a critical Labor Day primetime game against No. 19 SMU that could build momentum … for keeping his job or getting run out of Tallahassee. FSU has a very challenging schedule -- No. 13 Alabama awaits in Week 2 -- and it needs to get off to a hot start to have any shot at getting into the 8-win range by the end of the season. Program insiders point to SMU as supremely important for Norvell to buy back lost goodwill from a fanbase that no longer seems to believe in him.

Virginia on Oct. 3 will be key in that regard, too. A winnable home game before two challenging road trips (No. 24 Louisville , No. 7 Miami ), beating the Cavaliers will be crucial for sustaining morale and quieting outside noise. The bad news for FSU is UVA looked awfully good in a blowout win over North Carolina State in Week 0.

If Norvell can survive through the early slate and keep his job through a bye after Miami, a home game against Clemson looms large. If Florida State fires Norvell after the season, it will owe him $51 million. One thing telling about Norvell's status: Florida State did not spend up big in the transfer portal the way other hot seat programs did to help their coaches this season.

Key games: Week 4 at Penn State, Week 7 at UCLA, Week 9 at Iowa

Luke Fickell got a reprieve a year ago with Wisconsin deciding to invest more in the football program rather than a hefty buyout. Since then, though, AD Chris McIntosh left for a job at the Big Ten and Fickell has a new boss in Shawn Eichorst.

Despite all the hype when Wisconsin hired him away from Cincinnati , Fickell hasn't worked out in Madison. He's had back-to-back losing seasons (9-15 last two years), horrible quarterback injury luck and a team without a cohesive offensive identity. If Fickell has any hopes of keeping his job, Colton Joseph has to stay healthy and play better than his recent predecessors.

Three road games will likely determine Fickell's fate. The Badgers travel to Penn State on Sept. 26, at UCLA on Oct. 17 and at Iowa on Oct. 31. It is possible that Wisconsin could get six or seven wins if everything goes perfectly against programs like Michigan State , Rutgers and Maryland. But minus a Week 1 win over No. 5 Notre Dame , which is a three-touchdown favorite, Fickell's best chance at showing program growth will be in those road games. Blowout losses to Notre Dame and Penn State would crank up the intensity on Fickell before he even gets out of September.

Key games: Week 2 at UConn , Week 3 vs. Virginia Tech, Week 9 vs. Illinois

Maryland has excelled in the month of September under Mike Locksley, and will need that trend to continue in what looks like a more challenging slate. A Week 2 road trip to first-year coach Jason Candle's new-look UConn team is one that Locksley absolutely can't lose. Even if it's ugly, he needs to leave the Nutmeg State with a victory.

The following week's home game against Virginia Tech may be the most important of the season. Locksley and new Virginia ...

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: CBS Sports. Open at source →