Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for August 6

The Diamondbacks (61-54) poured on 10 runs in a win over the Padres (59-56) Wednesday night to go up 2-1 in the series. Thursday's matchup marks the series finale. The two teams will meet for a three game series to end the season and that could determine who makes the Wild Card and who doesn't.

Arizona is 2.0 games up on San Diego as the Diamondbacks extend their record to 6-2 over the past eight games, plus 16-7 in the previous 23. Ildemaro Vargas drove in four runs in Wednesday's win as the offense stayed hot. The Diamondbacks are hitting .281 to start August (4th) and have seven home runs (T-6th) over five games.

San Diego is 9-3 in the last 12 games and has not lost back-to-back outings since July 22-23. The Padres followed up their last two losses with wins of five and seven runs. In August, San Diego's pitching rotation has a 5.86 ERA (27th).

Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Padres at Diamondbacks

Date: Thursday, August 6, 2026

Time: 9:40 PM EST

Site: Chase Field

City: Phoenix, AZ

Network/Streaming: MLB TV / ESPN

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page , along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Padres at the Diamondbacks

The latest odds as of Thursday:

Moneyline: San Diego Padres (-104), Arizona Diamondbacks (-104)

Spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180), Padres -1.5 (+149)

Total: 9.0

Probable starting pitchers for Padres at Diamondbacks

Thursday's pitching matchup (August 6): Walker Buehler vs Kohl Drake

Diamondbacks: Kohl Drake

2026 stats: 13.0 IP, 0-0, 5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 12 K, 5 BB

Padres: Walker Buehler

2026 Stats: 104.1 IP, 6-5, 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 92 K, 44 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not

The Diamondbacks’  Gabriel Moreno  is hitting .296 with 89 hits, 8 home runs and 49 RBI over 301 at-bats

The Diamondbacks’  Tim Tawa  is hitting .232 with 35 hits and 35 strikeouts over 151 at-bats

The Padres’  Fernando Tatis Jr.  is hitting .280 with 124 hits, 9 home runs, and 50 RBI over 443 at-bats

The Padres’  Jake Croneworth  is hitting .216 with 45 hits and 51 strikeouts over 208 at-bats

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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Diamondbacks

San Diego is 62-53 ATS, ranking tied for fifth-best

Arizona is 62-53 ATS, ranking tied for fifth-best

San Diego is 61-53-1 to the Under, ranking eighth-best

Arizona is 60-49-6 to the Under, ranking sixth-best

San Diego is 31-25 ATS on the road, ranking fourth-best

Arizona is 30-24 ATS at home, ranking fourth-best

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Padres and the Diamondbacks

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Wednesday’s game between the Padres and the Diamondbacks:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Padres on the Moneyline.

Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Padres at -1.5.

Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 9.0

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