Be Careful’ — Why a Rising Patrick Mahomes ADP Is a Fantasy Football Trap in 2026

Jul 29, 2026; St. Joseph, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) walks down the hill to the fields prior to training camp at Missouri Western State University. © Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The fantasy market has Patrick Mahomes priced correctly right now, and that is exactly what makes the next month dangerous. He is coming off the board as a back-end QB1, a fair number for a quarterback carrying this much risk. The question is what the steady drip of good health news does to that number.

Be careful with Patrick Mahomes. PFN’s Kyle Soppe used those exact words, and the point is well founded. At his current QB14 price, Mahomes is a fine pick, and nobody should talk you off him there. The trap only springs if the positive rehab reports keep coming and he starts rising up draft boards as a result.

You can read more about his fantasy football regression candidates here .

Why Patrick Mahomes’ QB4 Finish Is a Mirage

Start with the fine print on that finish. Mahomes was the QB4 in points per game, eclipsing the 20 PPG threshold for the first time since 2022. However, the path to that milestone was different than in the early portion of his career.

Mahomes set career highs with 422 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Through eight weeks, he was the QB1 at 25 PPG, and the ground work carried it, with 280 of those yards and four of those scores coming in that stretch. His arm, meanwhile, posted career worsts: 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and a 62.7% completion rate, all the lowest of his career as a starter. Vintage Mahomes, the MVP passer, did not walk back through the door last year. The fantasy line did, and it got there on the ground.

Why Patrick Mahomes’ Rushing Is About to Regress

The rushing is the exact part you cannot count on again. Mahomes is working back from a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee, cleared to practice in late July but not guaranteed to be his old mobile self on day one. A quarterback whose fantasy value leaned on scrambling is a shaky bet the year he is rehabbing the knee he scrambles on.

He has also told everyone he intends to run less. Mahomes acknowledged that he ran too much in 2025 and said he plans to hand the load to Kenneth Walker III, the explosive back Kansas City added to take pressure off him. Stack the injury, the stated plan, and Walker’s arrival on top of one another, and the rushing regression stops being a projection.

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For that to be fine, the arm has to make up the gap, and I am not betting on it. Mahomes’ passing efficiency has slid three years running, and the group behind Rashee Rice is thin, with Travis Kelce turning 37 in October and Xavier Worthy still short of the first-round billing Kansas City paid for him in 2024. Soppe’s read is blunt, and I agree with it: even if the per-pass production simply holds, the lost rushing is crippling.

None of this is a problem at QB14, and I want to be clear about that. The market has him right today. The danger is only tomorrow, if the rehab headlines keep landing and his price drifts up toward that QB4 finish. Buy him there and you are paying for rushing points that are walking out the door, the small-win, big-miss profile Soppe warns about. If the summer hype lifts his ADP, let it lift. Just do not be the manager who pays the new number.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: Yahoo Sports. Open at source →