TUESDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK: Vandal fans, temper those expectations

Aug. 25—COMMENTARY

It's time for the best season of the year. "Is that fall?" you may ask. No, it's football season, of course, you silly goose.

The Idaho Vandals kick off their 2026 campaign against the Cal Poly Mustangs at 7 p.m. Friday at Mustang Memorial Field in San Luis Obispo, Calif. The game will be broadcast on ESPN proper.

With that being said, it's time for the first Trevor Junt exclusive Tuesday Morning Quarterback of the season here at the Lewiston Tribune and Moscow-Pullman Daily News.

Today's topic for Vandal fans: temper your expectations.

Now, by saying "temper your expectations for Idaho this 2026 season," I am not exclaiming the Vandals are going to be a terrible product on the football field. I just mean don't quite expect national championship-level play.

I've seen some Idaho fans online exclaiming that the Vandals will easily make the FCS playoffs and win eight to 10 games this season.

I think in reality this Vandal team will improve, but I see six or seven wins this season, which should excite people who support black and gold.

Improvement from coach Thomas Ford Jr. as the headman is the most crucial piece this season.

He's brought in the staff he wants, with new offensive coordinator Ian Shoemaker, new defensive coordinator Lee Stalker, new special teams coordinator Joe Begnal and a significant number of new position coaches.

So it truly is his team this season, where last season he inherited a lot of players and staff.

Keep in mind, last season Idaho finished in ninth place in the Big Sky with a record of 4-8 and 2-6 in conference. There were high expectations for the Vandals; they were ranked in the Stats Perform Top 25 for multiple weeks before and at the start of the season. Idaho failed to meet those expectations in the last year.

But going back to the expectations for this year, based on opponents' win percentage from the 2025 season, Idaho has the eighth-hardest schedule (.583) in the FCS this season, according to Skyline Sports. That's out of 127 teams. I repeat: No. 8 toughest out of 127.

Some of that is a byproduct of playing in the Big Sky — one of the best conferences in all of the FCS. Still, the Vandals have the hardest schedule in the Big Sky; the closest is Northern Colorado (.568) at No. 14 in the FCS.

The top two teams in the Big Sky last season, Montana State (.446) and Montana (.463), sit at Nos. 94 and 80, respectively. That is certainly boosted by the fact that neither school has to play itself. The reigning national champion Bobcats don't have another reigning national champion on their schedule. And the Griz, who bowed to the Bobcats in the semifinals, don't have a national semifinalist from Missoula to worry about.

Idaho does.

The schedule is gonna do the Vandals no favors.

Ford has said multiple times this summer that the Vandals' goals are focused on the process rather than the outcome. He said, looking back at last season, during the 2025 Big Sky Football Kickoff, that he and the players were talking about winning the Big Sky and a national championship and that it did not help them, actually doing a disservice to the team.

So he said in his first Monday news conference of the season Monday that the plan is to treat every game like a championship game. He said the Vandals need to compartmentalize and not look forward or behind, to stay present as much as possible.

Another thing that both Ford and senior quarterback Joshua Wood said recently is that if the ball had bounced their way in a couple of losses, the 4-8 record could've been flipped.

Idaho lost to Washington State by three points from a late field goal; the same thing happened in the three-point loss to San Jose State. The Vandals lost to Eastern Washington by seven points and used a barrage of QBs with Wood being injured. And Idaho lost to Sacramento State by three points with a very controversial ending.

They're not exactly exaggerating too much; if the Vandals could've just scored a few more points or made a few more stops, that record could've been 8-4.

I asked Ford how to approach trying to flip that record this season.

"Be good in those end-of-game scenarios," Ford said. "If we're on the field in a two-minute situation, we can't let them drive the field and kick a field goal, for example. Those three games we lost by three. We had opportunities defensively to get a stop in the two-minute situation."

Now, many Vandal players have been through that fire.

He mentioned the WSU game and that when he looked out on the field, all five of the defensive backs had never been in a two-minute situation at the end of a game, trying to prevent a field goal at the college level. But having more experience this year should produce better play.

"So I think the experience will really help, but also continuing that understanding that that ball bounces our way a couple more times, our record is flipped," Ford explained. "So that's how quickly it can change for you. So the only way to really combat that is to really work on the details, making sure that you're crossing all your Ts, dotting all your Is, and that's what we've really been focused on throughout fall camp."

That's what the season comes down to for Idaho.

Don't worry about whether the Vandals are ranked or not, don't worry about what their record might look like in October, and don't worry about playoff odds or certainly national championship odds.

Just worry about Friday. Then the game after that.

If Ford and this new-look coaching staff can get Idaho consistently playing better in those small moments — the two-minute drills, the third downs, the red zone, the plays that could ultimately decide those close games — this team has a chance to make a significant improvement from last season.

Six or seven wins might not be what you want to re...

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