2026 Big Ten Football Over/Under Picks

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 29: The Ohio State Buckeyes line up for a point after try attempt during the second quarter against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The best conference in college football is back for another run at the sport’s ultimate crown. While the copium crisis continues to run rampant in SEC country, the Big Ten is focused on securing its fourth straight national championship, preferably with a team that hasn’t won one of the previous three. *Cough, Oregon.* However, this is a conference that never plays by the book.

Three years ago, Michigan won the title despite not having Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines for six games and the shadow of Connor Stalions hanging over the program. In 2024, Ohio State was left for dead after Michigan hung a W and planted their flag in Columbus, only for the Buckeyes to rally and go scorched-Earth in the College Football Playoff. And last year, Indiana — widely regarded as one of the best teams of the century — was ranked 20th in the preseason and didn’t crack the top-10 until Week 5.

There will be ups, downs, highs, lows, overs and unders this season. Let’s see if we can predict a few before Week 0 kicks off this weekend.

Illinois (6.5)

Head coach Bret Bielema has Illinois rolling! The Illini are coming off the winningest two-year stretch in program history, winners of 19 games, more than the program accomplished in five years under Lovie Smith. Now, Bielema must reset with only seven returning starters and a new quarterback in East Carolina transfer Katin Houser.

The schedule is average per Big Ten standards, with a road game at Ohio State and a home game against Oregon, but Illinois does avoid Indiana, USC and Michigan. There are several coin-flip games down the stretch — at Maryland, Nebraska, at UCLA, Iowa, at Northwestern — which, in recent years, Illinois would likely emerge 4-1 at the worst. But with only one returning starter across both lines of scrimmage and a new defensive coordinator implementing a 3-3-5, there is too much uncertainty to feel confident in seven wins.

Prediction: Under

Indiana (10.5)

Curt Cignetti is 27-2 since taking over in Bloomington and has never lost to a team that didn’t play in the National Championship. Indiana plays Ohio State and Michigan back-to-back and balances out that burden by playing a non-conference slate that rivals Notre Dame’s entire schedule.

There are question marks across the offense with TCU transfer quarterback Josh Hoover attempting to fill the shoes of Fernando Mendoza, but alas, this is a program that scored 40 points a game with Kurtis Rourke calling the shots; the offense will figure it out. Defensively, Bryant Haines might be leading a group even better than last year. It’s only Year 3, but bet against Cignetti at your own risk. “Google” him.

Prediction: Over

Iowa (7.5)

Iowa hasn’t won less than eight games since 2014. Quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski inspires as much confidence as Sydney Sweeney playing the lead in a Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic, but is any team better equipped to overcome poor quarterback play than Iowa? Even if this team is 3-3 to start the year, it’s still a Kirk Ferentz-led team; it’s still a Phil Parker-coordinated defense; it’s still the best offensive line in the country.

This team will simultaneously underachieve, overachieve and punt its way to eight wins. Again.

Prediction: Over

Maryland (5.5)

Maryland is *checks notes* loaded with talent and experience. The Terps return 71 percent of their 2025 statistical production (second in the country), including 14 starters and quarterback Malik Washington. To help ease the pressure on the rising sophomore quarterback, new offensive coordinator Clint Trickett will seek to resuscitate a run game that was the second-worst in the Big Ten in 2025.

Defensively, the fall camp injury to defensive end Zahir Mathis, to put it eloquently, sucks, and only adds to the expectation of five-star recruit Zion Elee as a freshman. But even without Mathis, this is the most talented team Mike Locksley has ever had in College Park and the win total comes down to belief or lack thereof in the man in charge. I am the latter.

Prediction: Under

Michigan (8.5)

This is the second-hardest schedule in the country. Michigan plays Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, with the latter two on the road. I understand the skepticism facing this program, but this team won nine games last year with a distracted head coach and a young, inexperienced quarterback irresponsibly being left to develop himself.

Enter: A head coach (Kyle Whittingham) with a two-decade resume of maximizing talent; an offensive coordinator (Jason Beck) who took Utah from 98th in rushing to second and the overall offense from 115th to fourth nationally in ONE year; a defensive coordinator (Jay Hill) with a proven track record of revivals and an All-American defensive end (John Henry Daley) who elevates the entire unit.

This offense is going to Run. The. Damn. Ball. and cause chaos on defense. Even if the win total stagnates from last season, this team is going to be vastly improved on the field.

Prediction: Over

Michigan State (4.5)

After four years away from the sidelines, Pat Fitzgerald takes over as head coach and savior in East Lansing. Once viewed as a sure thing, Fitz must prove himself after only winning four total games during his final two years at Northwestern. Before him is one of the worst rosters in the Power 4, and only two (three if you want to include quarterback Alessio Milivojevic) returning starters on either side of the ball. There are more questions than wins with this much uncertainty.

Prediction: Under

Minnesota (6.5)

The middle class of the Big Ten is a complete wild card with swing game after swing game. These next three teams are at the mercy of the scheduling gods and health.

P.J. Fleck has built Minnesota ...

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: Yahoo Sports. Open at source →