Tropical system could bring rain, wind, high surf to Southern California over Labor Day weekend

WEATHER Tropical system could bring rain, wind, high surf to SoCal over Labor Day weekend By Dallas Raines and Danny Romero Tuesday, September 1, 2026 5:18AM With the warm water from El Niño, there's a chance a tropical system could reach Southern California for Labor Day weekend. With the warm water from El Niño, there's a chance a tropical system could reach Southern California for Labor Day weekend.

With the El Niño, we're seeing many tropical systems forming out in the Pacific Ocean.

This week, we're monitoring a tropical storm system moving northbound, with some computer models showing the storm getting close to the Southern California coast.

Some spaghetti models show the storm getting really close to SoCal, though the plots are spread out, meaning there is still some uncertainty in the forecast.

Models already show the unnamed tropical disturbance out in the ocean. As we track forward to the weekend, some models show the disturbance strengthening as it approaches SoCal. Meanwhile, other models show it continuing west out into the ocean, away from the coast.

If the storm does make its way into SoCal, it could bring very heavy rain, gusty winds and high surf for Labor Day weekend.

On Monday, the National Weather Service says there is a high chance of large waves and strong rip currents for Labor Day beachgoers. Experts say there is a moderate chance for impactful coastal flooding for south-facing shores.

Meanwhile, the NWS says there is a low chance of offshore winds and a low chance of widespread moderate-to-heavy rain with flooding.

There's a reason these maps are called spaghetti models. Just take a look. There are lines all over the place, like a plate of spaghetti.

The simple lines actually come from some of the fastest computers in the world, making billions of computations. Also known as spaghetti plots, these models show where a tropical system, such as a hurricane, may go.

The more they are clustered together, the higher the confidence in the forecast. Lines that are spread far apart can indicate uncertainty in the forecast.

No. There are different kinds of spaghetti models: dynamical models, statistical models and ensemble models.

Dynamical models require hours on a supercomputer solving physical equations of motion to produce a forecast.

Statistical models, in contrast, are based on historical relationships between storm behavior and storm-specific details such as location and date.

Ensemble, or consensus models, are created by combining the forecasts from a collection of other models.

All models show the expected track of the storm, and many also show how strong the storm will be.

Models are run and operated by governments and private companies around the world. Some are public, while others are private.

Usually, the name of the model can give away who is responsible.

Take, for example, the "Navy Global Environmental Model," which is run by the United States Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.

Some of the more familiar models are the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models run by the U.S. government and a partnership of European countries, respectively.

The combination of plotting them all on one map is done by various companies. For example, CNN uses a software company to plot the most recent models on the CNN Storm Tracker when tracking active storms.

The easy answer is all the time. These models run multiple times a day and can change very quickly.

The key is to look for trends. In other words, did all the models shift to the north or south -- or do most of the models show the storm moving faster?

The other is consistency. Are the plots moving north, for instance, and have they done that the last three times you looked?

While no forecast is perfect, spaghetti models do a great job of giving us an idea where these powerful forces of nature will go.

This helps us better prepare for when a hurricane strikes.

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