China’s reported chip breakthrough comes with some big caveats

ASML 's stock fell Tuesday after a report that China is mass-producing a critical tool that the Dutch tech giant has long held a monopoly over.

The decline came amid a steep sell-off in global semiconductor stocks as investors continued to grapple with uncertainty about the sector. ASML was last trading down 1.8%, but the stock is up over 123% this year.

Analysts told CNBC that while reports on China entering a market that ASML dominates may raise some concerns, the developments are unlikely to shake the Dutch company's dominance, adding there are some big caveats to the story.

"I would take this with a pinch of salt as what [China does] could be limited to the very low end," Stephane Houri, head of equity research at ODDO BHF, told CNBC.

The Information on Monday reported that an unnamed Chinese company has begun manufacturing an immersion deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) machine, citing people familiar with the matter.

The tools are expected to be delivered this year to China's biggest chip manufacturers, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp . and Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which went public this week.

Investors are concerned that if China continues to build out its homegrown semiconductor technology, it could cut off some of the biggest U.S., European and other Asian firms from the huge market.

An immersion DUV machine is a tool that is used to etch circuit patterns into silicon wafers. It is a critical part of the semiconductor manufacturing process that is purchased by foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and Intel .

However, it is used for less-advanced chips. In contrast, an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine is used for the most leading-edge chips, such as those designed by Apple and Nvidia .

ASML dominates the market for DUV and EUV lithography tools. No other company has been able to replicate what ASML does, which is why it is a big deal that a Chinese firm has reportedly done so. Nevertheless, questions remain as to what impact the latest developments will have on the company.

When it comes to the performance of China's DUV machines, semiconductor manufacturers focus on a term known as "yield" which refers to the number of usable chips that come out of the process. All foundries aim for maximum yield.

It is currently unclear whether a Chinese manufacturer using the homegrown DUV machine will deliver a chip yield close to or above that of a machine from ASML. If the yield is not close to what ASML machines can provide, that might hamper the adoption of China's machine.

"They need to get to at least yield parity, not just have a working tool," Nick Patience, AI lead at the Futurum Group, told CNBC.

Patience said that imported DUV machines used by SMIC, China's biggest chip manufacturer, are "still way worse than that of TSMC" in Taiwan.

"Any machine built by an unknown state-backed company are starting from a much worse spot. Reliability takes years of iteration in the field, which ASML has [and] China still has yet to achieve," Patience added.

Another challenge for China is scaling these machines. The Information reported that the Chinese firm developing the DUV tool is aiming to produce five units this year and around 20 in 2027.

In comparison, ASML said it plans for a capacity of around 130 DUV immersion machines in 2026, and is planning to add 30% in 2027.

"Tool performance, scaling production of the machine itself, fleet performance, surrounding ecosystem and poor economics against fully depreciated ASML machines all stack up against China DUV," a team of analysts at SemiAnalysis told CNBC.

"Scaling production of the machine itself [is] the most underestimated part."

ASML's shares tanked as much as 8% on Monday after the report raised concerns that its market share in China could be eroded.

China accounted for 14% of ASML's net system sales of 6.6 billion euros ($7.5 billion) in the second quarter of the year . That is around 924 million euros (roughly $1 billion).

Analysts told CNBC that it is unlikely to impact ASML in a big way within China or globally.

Due to export restrictions, ASML is already restricted from selling some immersion DUV tools to Chinese companies. Therefore, the DUV tools that China is producing "displace revenue ASML already lost to export controls," SemiAnalysis analysts said, adding that ASML is adding more capacity to meet demand.

ASML shares over the past five days. "A tool ASML cannot legally or physically supply being built locally does not subtract from a sold-out order book," SemiAnalysis analysts noted

Any challenge to ASML "would require the Chinese company to produce reliable machines serially and support them in a variety of fab environments globally, which right now seems like quite a stretch," Paul Triolo, a partner at DGA Albright Stonebridge Group, told CNBC.

"Providing a small number of even minimally capable DUV machines domestically is one thing, supporting a global fleet that would provide real competition for ASML is quite another."

ASML needed "roughly two decades" and around $10 billion of research and development and co-investment from companies including Intel, TSMC and Samsung to make EUV commercially viable, SemiAnalysis said. EUV then only became profitable at scale around 2018 to 2019.

"Some breakthroughs in DUV immersion lithography are applicable to more advanced EUV technologies, but many are not. EUV light source and optics technology are much more advanced and complex for DUV" Triolo of DGA Albright Stonebridge Group said. There would be some learning, but there are many more technological hurdles that would need to be cleared to achieve a fully functioning EUV system, he said.

"I think EUV is out of reach. Never say never, especially with the Chinese, but it's a completely different technology," ODDO BHF's Houri added.

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