Heisman trophy odds, predictions, best bets: Will this be the year Arch Manning delivers?

Few individual awards in sports generate more debate than the Heisman trophy.

Every season brings new narratives, breakout stars and preseason favorites, but the winner is rarely as random as the offseason noise makes it seem. Two years ago, Colorado's Travis Hunter turned in one of the most unusual Heisman campaigns we've ever seen, winning the award as a true two-way star while logging more than 1,400 snaps. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty pushed him to the finish that year, running for the second-most yards in FBS history behind only Barry Sanders' 1988 season.

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For a moment, it looked like the door had swung open for non-quarterbacks. Then Indiana's Fernando Mendoza won it in 2025, and the trophy went right back where it usually lives.

The reality hasn't changed: The Heisman is still overwhelmingly a quarterback award.

So before making any bets, it's worth looking at what history actually tells us about the type of player who wins the yearly award.

What history says about winning the Heisman

Since 2005, quarterbacks have won 16 of the past 21 Heisman trophies (76%). Running backs have taken it just three times, DeVonta Smith is still the only wide receiver ever to win it and Hunter's two-way campaign stands entirely on its own.

Picking the right quarterback, though, takes more than projecting big numbers. You need production, but you also need winning, national exposure and a story that builds week to week.

Over the last two decades:

The average Heisman winner has just 1.25 losses.

Only one preseason betting favorite has gone on to win the award since 2014.

Roughly two-thirds of winners started the year with a team ranked outside the AP top five, giving voters a chance to watch them climb rather than simply meet expectations.

That last point might be the most important one. The Heisman isn't just a prize for the best player. It goes to the player who gives voters a reason to change their minds as the season plays out.

When I evaluate candidates, I fold all of that into what I call the Heisman Opportunity Index. The formula isn't complicated.

A player needs three things:

An elite team capable of winning 11 or 12 games.

National television windows that put him in front of voters.

Defining moments against quality opponents that separate him from the field.

With that framework in mind, here are my favorite preseason bets.

Arch Manning and Texas have a brutal schedule this season. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Pass: Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+800)

If you read last year's Heisman preview, you know I was bullish on Arch Manning. The logic was simple: Texas would be on national television almost every week, giving Manning every chance to build momentum.

That part was right.

The problem is that the spotlight cuts both ways. Manning flashed the ceiling, but he never strung together the dominant stretches you need to justify being the preseason favorite.

I still believe in the talent. The arm strength is elite, he's a natural playmaker and he's fully capable of producing the kind of moments that win a Heisman. I just don't love the path, as Texas has one of the toughest schedules in the country. I project four true toss-up games, three of them on the road at Oklahoma, LSU and Texas A&M. Throw in a trip to Tennessee and there's almost nowhere on the slate to exhale. Even the marquee home games against Ohio State and Ole Miss are anything but easy.

Could Manning rise above all of that? Absolutely. If he plays well against that level of competition week in and week out, he'll deserve both the Heisman and a look as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL draft. The issue is the price, as I have Manning closer to 13-1 to win the award. He's a player I'd rather bet into during the season than buy before Week 1.

Dark horse: Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana (16-1)

Indiana has quietly become one of the best quarterback factories in college football. Kurtis Rourke resurrected his career in Bloomington and turned into an NFL draft pick. Then Fernando Mendoza arrived as a prized transfer and walked out with the 2025 Heisman Trophy, the first in program history.

Now it's Josh Hoover's turn.

Hoover entered the portal as one of the best quarterbacks available after throwing for more than 7,000 yards and 56 touchdowns over his past two seasons at TCU. He did all of that behind an inconsistent offense that constantly forced him to create outside of structure. Do I expect him to match Mendoza's Heisman-level efficiency? Probably not. But a lot of Indiana's quarterback success traces back to Curt Cignetti's staff and the system it runs, and Hoover has every physical tool to thrive in it.

The schedule helps, too. Indiana should be able to pile up numbers early before hosting marquee games against Ohio State and USC. Those national windows are exactly the kind of exposure a Heisman run is built on. If the Hoosiers win 11 or 12 games again, Hoover won't just be a fun surprise. He'll be in New York as a legitimate finalist.

Winner: Darian Mensah, QB, Miami FL (12-1)

Few quarterbacks have seen their stock climb faster than Darian Mensah. After breaking out at Tulane, Mensah spent last season at Duke, where he led the ACC in passing, earned ACC Championship Game MVP honors and carried the Blue Devils to their first outright league title since 1962. Now he takes over at Miami as Carson Beck's replacement, with the most talented roster he's ever had around him. The jump in supporting cast is real, and I expect his production to take another leap because of it.

What stands out most isn't his athleticism — though he's more mobile than he gets credit for — it's how comfortable he is working from the pocket. Mensah doesn't lean on sc...

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