Updated ESPN FPI projections for Texas A&M's 2026 season

Texas A&M will kick off the 2026 season against Missouri State on Saturday night, as coach Mike Elko's third year at the helm is expected to be his toughest, largely because of the new nine-game SEC schedule that includes road tests against LSU, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. However, after making the College Football Playoff last season, doubting the Aggies is a pointless exercise.

Through 16 preseason practices, Elko's revamped roster is one of the deepest in the SEC, even after 15 starters, including a record 10 players selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, departed this offseason.

However, among the 17 transfer portal additions, combined with the 2026 signing class, Elko is confident that several positions have been upgraded, while redshirt junior quarterback Marcel Reed has seemingly taken the next step, based on what we witnessed during fall camp.

To avoid repeating the same information about Texas A&M's roster, the start of the 2026 season means looking ahead to SEC play after the Aggies face Missouri State and Arizona State in Kyle Field, needing to get off to a hot start before facing the brutal second half of the schedule.

According to ESPN's updated FPI predictions for all 12 of the Aggies' regular season games, Texas A&M is predicted to finish 9-3, matching my Aggies Wire contributors Jarrett Johnson and Dylan Flippo, who feel a 9-3 finish is more realistic. Ahead of Saturday's season opener, here are the updated FPI predictions for Texas A&M's 2026 season.

ESPN FPI predictions for Texas A&M's 2026 season

Texas A&M (98.2%) vs. Missouri State (1.8%)

Texas A&M (90.3%) vs. Arizona State (9.7%)

Texas A&M (89.5%) vs. Kentucky (10.5%)

Texas A&M (43.4%) at LSU (56.6%)

Texas A&M (90.3%) vs. Arkansas (9.7%)

Texas A&M (66.0%) at Missouri (34.0%)

Texas A&M (99.0) vs. Citadel (1.0%)

Texas A&M (41.8%) at Alabama (58.2%)

Texas A&M (69.5%) at South Carolina (30.5%)

Texas A&M (72.%) vs. Tennessee (28.0%)

Texas A&M (50.1%) at Oklahoma (49.9%)

Texas A&M (34.9%) vs. Texas (65.1%)

Texas A&M being a slight favorite over Oklahoma on the road compared to a large underdog at home against the Texas Longhorns is quite surprising, as my own predictions see the Aggies losing to Alabama and Oklahoma, while defeating Texas at the end of the season to finish with a 10-2 record.

This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: Updated ESPN FPI projections for Texas A&M's 2026 season

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