Jewish Dem defections threaten El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race decided by razor-thin margins

Jewish voters could provide the decisive margin in Michigan’s November Senate election, particularly as some lifelong Democrats say they are prepared to cross party lines following and vote for Republican Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

Analysts point to Michigan’s last U.S. Senate race that was decided by just 19,006 votes. With estimates placing the state’s Jewish population between approximately 105,000 and 130,000 adults, those votes could tip the scales in favor of Rogers.

"Republicans made real gains in the most Jewish areas in 2024, and Michigan was no exception," Matthew Knee, a Republican pollster and consultant who serves as chief data officer of Pulse Decision Science, told Fox News Digital.

"Stevens massively outperformed in many Jewish precincts as well," Knee said, commenting on the primary. "Rogers and El-Sayed are both the kinds of candidates that will accelerate this trend. There are only 130,000 Jewish voters in Michigan, but in 2024, Rogers only lost by 19,006 votes, so that can make the difference in that kind of razor-thin environment."

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For generations, voting for the Democratic Party has been part of the identity of many Jewish families across the state, but following El-Sayed’s victory, some are moving toward the Republican Party.

In interviews with Fox News Digital, several Jewish Michigan voters said El-Sayed’s positions regarding Israel and Zionism have forced them to choose between the liberal values they have supported throughout their lives and what they view as the safety of their children and community.

For many, that prospective vote would not represent a wholesale rejection of the Democratic Party. It would be a break in this single race, a split-ticket vote they once considered unthinkable.

Steve Cohen, a lifelong Michigan resident and self-described "notorious ticket splitter," said the current political climate has made the Senate race especially consequential.

"We’ve had attacks on our synagogues and our school buildings where our kids go," Cohen said. "There’s a torrent of activity pushing anti-Israel and anti-Jewish things on our campuses, and that includes every part of the state of Michigan. So right now, it’s a little bit scary to be a Jew here."

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"I now feel forced to choose between those liberal values and the safety of my children," said Benji, a lifelong Michigan resident and self-identified liberal whose last name Fox News Digital is withholding for security reasons.

"As a lifelong Jewish liberal, I have advocated for liberal values, including common-sense gun laws, LGBT rights, women’s reproductive healthcare, healthcare reform and Black Lives Matter," Benji said.

"El-Sayed may claim to love Jews and the Jewish people, but requiring Jews to be anti-Zionist is a racist purity test and makes his claim ring hollow," he added. "I believe in changing the system from within, but it is no longer safe inside that system for me or for my children."

Stacy – who also asked to withhold her last name – comes from a fifth-generation Democratic Jewish family and has lived in Michigan for 13 years. She has also never voted Republican. Her alienation from the Democratic Party intensified at its state convention in April, where she said she felt hostility toward anyone who openly supported Israel.

"I felt the hatred and hostility in the room toward me if I dared to be supportive of Israel," Stacy said. She recalled watching Stevens being booed and harassed and said she "could see the writing on the wall."

"I take no joy in feeling like my party has abandoned me, but I need to vote this way for self-preservation," she said.

Stacy also pointed to Rogers’ experience, calling him the more qualified candidate "if you look at it just on paper."

Mike Rogers is a former Army officer, FBI special agent, congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

Jewish voters make up approximately 1.4% of Michigan’s electorate, representing an estimated 105,000 people statewide, according to the American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University. Much of the community is concentrated in the politically significant Detroit suburbs .

"We hear constantly about the Muslim vote in Michigan, particularly in Dearborn, as a crucial political bloc. But the truth is that Jews in the Great Lakes State are a comparably sized religious minority and historically a much more important constituency for the Democratic Party," said Jesse Arm, Manhattan Institute vice president and pollster.

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Arm said Jewish voters turn out at high rates and have long provided Democratic candidates with votes and financial support. He said Jewish organizers and political fundraisers described "an unprecedented level of opposition to El-Sayed among Jewish Democrats."

"Some intend simply to withhold their votes and contributions," Arm said. "But many prominent Jewish Democratic families and donors are prepared to go further and directly support Mike Rogers."

Sam Markstein, national political director and spokesman for the Republican Jewish Coalition, told Fox News Digital that those voters could provide the decisive margin in November.

Markstein said the RJC analyzed primary results in Oak Park, Bloomfield Township, West Bloomfield and Southfield, four Oakland County communities with sizable Jewish populations. According to the organization’s analysis, Stevens received approximately 37,000 votes across those communities, compared with about 20,000 for El-Sayed.

Her combined 17,000-vote advantage was greater than the statewide margin by which Rogers lost his 2024 Senate campaign to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.

"That’s a really big delta there that shows that Jewish voters do not like ...

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