College football Week 0 upset watch: Grading every game’s underdog

Every week of the 2026 college football season, this article series will rank the slate’s games on a 1-10 upset scale, with 10 marking the game most likely to produce an upset and 1 marking the safest chalk on the board.

Week 0 features just eight games, so every matchup gets a number instead of a curated handful. In the coming weeks, about six or seven games will be covered. The upset watch scale weighs the matchup against roster continuity, injuries, and situational factors uncovered through research, not raw name recognition.

MORE: College football Week 0 betting picks for all eight games

North Carolina vs. TCU (-8.5): Upset Watch 4

TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jordan Dwyer (7) celebrates during the game against the SMU Mustangs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Both teams enter with new starting quarterbacks, Harvard transfer Jaden Craig for TCU and Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr. for North Carolina, and TCU already routed the Tar Heels 48-14 in last year’s opener at Chapel Hill. North Carolina’s defense graded out well beyond its 4-8 record last season, which keeps this from being a lock for the Horned Frogs a second straight time. TCU wins by two scores, 28-13.

Picks: TCU SU, TCU -8.5 ATS, Under 46.5

San Jose State vs. USC (-38.5): Upset Watch 1

Southern California Trojans running back Waymond Jordan (2) runs the ball against the Michigan State Spartans. Nothing in the buildup suggests a competitive game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The Trojans return quarterback Jayden Maiava and an experienced offensive line, though center Kilian O’Connor is now out for the season after a fall camp knee injury. San Jose State is rebuilding under third-year coach Ken Niumatalolo after a 3-9 season. USC has beaten this exact opponent 56-28 in its last meeting. An outright upset here is not a realistic scenario, even if the Spartans find a way to cover. USC’s defense will keep this from hitting the under. The Trojans will blow them out, 49-7.

Picks: USC SU, San Jose State +38.5 ATS, Under 61.5

NC State (+4) vs. Virginia: Upset Watch 7

Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) throws a pass against the Memphis Tigers. NC State has won four straight meetings in this series and has not lost in Charlottesville since 1996. The bigger factor is health. Virginia’s Wednesday injury report listed 16 players out , including projected No. 1 receiver Rico Flores, with star linebacker Kam Robinson questionable. NC State’s own report lists roughly half as many players out. Quarterback CJ Bailey also gives the Wolfpack the more experienced starter in the game. NC State is the better team and wins, 27-20.

Picks: NC State SU, NC State +4 ATS, Under 51.5

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Jacksonville State (+7) vs. North Dakota State: Upset Watch 6

North Dakota State Bison head coach Tim Polasek reacts in the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes. This is one of the more evenly matched games on the Week 0 slate. North Dakota State is playing its first-ever FBS game and turns to senior Nathan Hayes at quarterback after Cole Payton left for the NFL draft, following a 2025 season in which Payton threw for 2,719 yards behind a 12-1 team. The Bison also lost key pieces on the defensive line and at linebacker.

Jacksonville State went 9-5 last season and reached the Conference USA title game, but it also lost last year’s nation-leading rusher, Cam Cook, who transferred to West Virginia after running for 1,661 yards. Both sides enter with real questions, giving the Fargodome debut a real chance to be competitive. NDSU pulls away late, but this game will be tight through three quarters, 28-16.

Picks: NDSU SU, NDSU -7 ATS, Under 46.5

Sacramento State vs. Eastern Michigan (-9.5): Upset Watch 3

Eastern Michigan Eagles head coach Chris Creighton looks on during the second quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats. Sacramento State is jumping straight from the FCS to the FBS with a nearly rebuilt roster, but Eastern Michigan enters off a 4-8 season with a run defense that struggled throughout 2025 , including a 342-yard rushing day allowed to Ohio State and a 334-yard day allowed to Toledo. Quarterback Noah Kim returns after throwing for 2,817 yards last year, giving the Eagles a clear experience edge, and Sacramento State’s own coaching staff and personnel turned over almost entirely this offseason. EMU wins, 30-17.

Picks: Eastern Michigan SU, Eastern Michigan -9.5 ATS, Under 53.5

Hawaii (+4) vs. Stanford: Upset Watch 9

Rainbow Warriors wide receiver Pofele Ashlock (5) pulls in a touchdown catch over Utah State Aggies safety Bobby Arnold (12). Hawaii won this exact matchup a year ago, 23-20, and returns quarterback Micah Alejado, who threw for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. Stanford is breaking in a new head coach in Tavita Pritchard along with new coordinators, and its defense struggled through a 4-8 season in 2025. The two staffs have a real history here. Pritchard hosted Hawaii coach Timmy Chang on a Cardinal recruiting visit 22 years ago, and Chang returned the favor by hosting a teenage Pritchard in Honolulu the same year. “I’ve got a special connection to Timmy,” Pritchard said this week . “I’ve got a ton of respect for him through his playing and coaching career.” The Rainbow Warriors take this one, 33-27.

Picks: Hawaii SU, Hawaii +4 ATS, Over 48.5

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New Mexico State vs. Florida State (-31.5): Upset Watch 1

Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) reaches for the ball in the end zone. The gap in roster talent here is as wide as any game on the board. For those who have Mike Norvell on the hot seat , this won’t be the matchup that does him in. The Seminoles are looking to rebound from a 5-7 season and bring in Stanford-turned-Auburn transfer quarterback Ashton Daniels to throw to preseason All-American receiver Duce Robinson, who caught 1,081 yards worth...

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: Yahoo Sports. Open at source →