Map Shows Shift in Midterm Districts From 'Solid' Republican to 'Likely

0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Republicans are facing a new potential warning sign heading into the 2026 midterms, with three GOP-held House districts shifting from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the latest ratings from the Cook Political Report.

The changes affect two districts in Ohio and one in Colorado, with the report pointing to state-specific political dynamics that could make traditionally favorable territory more competitive for Republicans.

Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science and in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, told Newsweek via email on Friday, "This should be of concern to the Republicans and a further wake up call to mobilize their electoral base and voters predisposed against the Democrats."

The three shifts highlight how the 2026 midterm environment could put Republican incumbents under pressure even in districts that remain favorable to the GOP.

A move from “Solid” to “Likely” Republican does not mean Cook Political expects these seats to become toss-ups. Instead, it signals that the political environment has become less comfortable for Republicans and that state-level races and candidate dynamics could have an impact on House contests.

For Republicans, the changes are an early indication that the 2026 map may not be limited to the handful of traditionally competitive battleground districts. If Democrats can capitalize on favorable statewide dynamics in places like Ohio — where Trump won by double digits just two years ago — they could force Republicans to spend resources defending seats that once appeared considerably safer.

Midterm elections are commonly seen as a measure of public approval for the current president too, and the president's party has traditionally lost seats during these elections. At present, Republicans maintain a narrow House majority, controlling 218 seats, while Democrats hold 212.

With control of the House up for grabs in the upcoming midterm, even modest shifts in the GOP’s favorability could ultimately matter.

The shift is particularly notable in Ohio, a state that has become increasingly reliable for Republicans in presidential elections. President Donald Trump carried Ohio by roughly 11 percentage points in 2024 versus former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Against that backdrop, the Cook Political Report is moving GOP Representative Mike Turner in Ohio’s 10th Congressional District and Mike Carey in the 15th District from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” The report says the potential for Democrats to win statewide races, including Sherrod Brown’s Senate bid and Amy Acton’s gubernatorial campaign, could create stronger down-ballot conditions for Democrats.

"There’s a decent chance that former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton both carry the 10th District, giving Democrats’ nominee, Kristina Knickerbocker, some coattails to hold on to," Cook Political Report's Erin Covey wrote in part about the 10th District race. "In 2024, Brown lost the district by just one point, and Vivek Ramaswamy’s vulnerabilities with Republican voters have made the governor’s race closer than it should be."

Cook Political Report says Ohio’s 15th District remains Republican leaning but could become competitive as Democratic trends strengthen in Columbus’ growing suburbs. Trump won the district by 10 points in 2024, but Senator Bernie Moreno, a Republican, carried it by just 2 points, while Carey won his reelection campaign by 13 points, the report lays out.

A July poll commissioned by Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC showed Democrats leading the generic ballot by 3 points, with Carey ahead of Democratic challenger Don Leonard by 5 points, with 45 percent to 40 percent. Carey has a significant financial advantage, with $2 million cash on hand compared with Leonard’s $250,000, the report says and has already reserved $1.5 million in fall advertising. Cook notes that Leonard’s liberal profile makes the race less competitive compared to other Democratic pickup opportunities in the state, while House Majority PAC has reserved another $1.8 million in the race, the report says.

Cook Political Report moved Ohio’s 10th District to "Likely" Republican, pointing to signs that the long-held GOP seat could become more competitive. Turner has consistently outperformed the Republican presidential ticket, winning by 18 points in 2024 even as Trump carried the district by 6 percent, but recent polling shows a closer race, the report says.

Knickerbocker outraised Turner last quarter, though she ended June with just $125,000, the report says. House Majority PAC has reserved $2.9 million in the district, adding to the potential for a competitive contest.

Colorado presents a different dynamic, but the shift there is also noteworthy. Trump actually lost Colorado by 10 percentage points in 2024, with Harris carrying the state, meaning Colorado itself is not a reliably Republican state.

But the 3rd Congressional District represented by Republican Representative Jeff Hurd is more favorable territory for the GOP. Cook Political Report is moving Hurd’s district from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican”, citing recent polling that shows a potentially more competitive race and concerns that the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, Victor Marx, could hurt Republicans down the ballot. Hurd has an "independent streak," the report notes, that could help him, and the district voted for Trump by 10 points in 2024 and 8 points in 2020.

Newsweek reached out to Hurd, Turner and Carey's campaigns via email on Friday for comment.

Democratic nominee Dwayne Romero’s campaign released a poll showing Hurd ahead by just one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, though private polling reportedly gives Hurd a larger lead. Hurd also has a majo...

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