Fantasy Football: 10 bold takes Hayden Winks is making for the QB and WR positions for 2026

For 90% of the offseason, the analysis is calculated. And then we get to have some fun. Today's column is ice cream for dinner, but if I hit on any of these, then I get to brag about it. When I miss on them, nobody is allowed to care. These are the rules. I don't make them up (I do).

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We'll get to the RB and TE version of this column later on, in addition to all of the written content and rankings we have in the Yahoo Ultra Draft Kit.

1. Puka Nacua (WR2 ADP) is 5th WR ever to score 400+ PPR points

It's hard to get off of Jahmyr Gibbs as the 1.01 in half PPR, but Nacua has a case and is definitely in the mix for 1.01 in full PPR. He has the most receptions through a WR's first three seasons in NFL history, and he's also the career leader in receiving yards per game. Last year, he led the NFL in both categories on a per-game basis (8.1 receptions for 107.7 yards).

Already a fantasy football legend, Nacua has a very obvious area to explode further: red zone TDs. Last year, Davante Adams had a 27% target share in the red zone compared to Nacua's 17%. Adams scored 13 RZ TDs to Nacua's 6. That could change at any point, especially if Adams' hammy acts up. If that gets close to even or flips to Nacua, then we're talking about a ceiling that only Cooper Kupp, Jerry Rice, CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase have ever had in a single season.

2. Malik Nabers (WR15) finishes as a top-10 WR

Nabers dodged PUP list from the get go at training camp, and he's looked really good so far, to the point where he's most likely to play in Week 1. It's possible, even likely, that he's not quite the same player on film, but him being available in September is a win and that gives him plenty of time to get up to speed later in the season when we actually need him. Plus, his ADP is discounting him from his obvious ceiling. The data on that:

As a rookie through Week 4 of last year, Nabers was half-PPR's WR7 on WR1 overall expected points. It's even better than that in full PPR. As a reminder, the Giants were 31st in scoring and 27th in passing yards per game over that stretch. That's how dominant he is versus his teammates and how explosive he can be with quality QB play. Jaxson Dart passes that threshold, and his competition for looks is simply swapping Wan'Dale Robinson for Isaiah Likely.

3. Jaylen Waddle (WR19 ADP) finishes as a top-12 WR

He was the WR12 in 2022 and nearly hit that mark as a rookie (WR18), so this is just a return to normal for Waddle as the top target in a reliable offense. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has 11 seasons as a top-five offense in pass attempts and has finished in the top half of the league in 14-of-21 seasons, including in both seasons with Bo Nix in Denver. Last year without Waddle, the Broncos were fourth in neutral pass rate, eighth in neutral pace and 15th in points per game. They've connected on a league-high amount of screens since 2024, too, despite them being drawn up for lesser talents in WRs Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin, who both have averaged more than 1.0 screen per game over the past two seasons. Waddle's absorbing those now.

4. Emeka Egbuka (WR21 ADP) finishes as a top-13 WR

Egbuka's rookie season will be remembered for his WR9 start through Week 11, and then a rug-pull WR64 finish from Weeks 12-18. There are splits to get to that can explain it.

First, Baker Mayfield suffered an AC Joint sprain to his shoulder in Week 12, and Egbuka's catchable ball rate dropped to 50% from that point forward, which was tied for worst among WRs. It was at 61% in Weeks 1-11. Egbuka also had his own injury. From ESPN's Benjamin Solak: "A Week 6 hamstring injury robbed him of his top speed; NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data had Egbuka with 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour through the first five weeks of the season ... and 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks, after the hamstring injury."

Egbuka's target share also jumped from 18.5% to 28.5% without Mike Evans, and his expected half-PPR points vaulted from 8.9 (WR41) to 12.5 (WR12). Evans being in San Francisco for this season and Chris Godwin Jr. getting another year older could really allow Egbuka to shine.

New Bucs OC Zac Robinson comes from the Rams where he turned the Z-receiver spot into record-breaking production with Cooper Kupp. Robinson said this about Egbuka: "He's very similar to a Cooper Kupp just in terms of the way that his brain works with the game of football and natural instincts."

In 2022, 19% of Kupp's receptions were screens and he had a lot more quick-design receptions on top of that, while largely avoiding press man coverage. None of that happened with Egbuka last season when he was forced onto the line of scrimmage in a downfield role. I think he can do it now.

5. Rome Odunze (WR28 ADP) finishes as a top-20 WR

A mid-season injury, untimely drops and too many missed throws by Caleb Williams hide some really nice underlying volume numbers for Odunze. He was the WR18 in per-game usage and the WR22 in targets per game (7.1), while competing with current Buffalo Bill DJ Moore. It'd be a surprise if those volume numbers weren't in the same ballpark in his third NFL season, even if Colston Loveland (dawg) and Luther Burden III are also emerging.

There just needs to be more chemistry between Odunze and Williams to pay off. Their zone feel has been horrific so far, though it's something I'm sure coach Ben Johnson is making a priority. Odunze simply has to catch the ball in traffic and near the sideline better, and Williams has to make the layup throws more often. Does that seem that far-fetched? Not to me. Young talent with elite coaching is all we can ask for. Check. Check.

6. Jalen Hurts (55th overall ADP) is the best "elite QB" value

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