Look at Progressive Democrats' Chances in November

0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Progressives have proved they can win Democratic primaries, but the bigger test still lies in the November midterms, when voters across the nation will decide a series of what are expected to be close races in the Senate and House, as well as some governorships.

Abdul El-Sayed, backed by two of the country’s most influential progressive politicians—independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez— won the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat this week.

El-Sayed will face Republican former Representative Mike Rogers in November after narrowly defeating Representative Haley Stevens in a race widely viewed as a contest between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party.

The result gives progressives one of their most consequential opportunities to demonstrate that their primary success can translate into victory in a closely contested general election.

It comes after other progressive victories— William Lawrence and Donavan McKinney won House primaries in Michigan on Tuesday, Chris Rabb secured the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District in May and Analilia Mejía won a special House election in New Jersey in April. They followed Zohran Mamdani’s high-profile election as New York City mayor last November.

But those candidates will each enter November on very different political ground. Some are running in safely Democratic districts, where winning the primary was their toughest electoral test. Others, including El-Sayed and Lawrence, must compete for voters in closely divided states or districts.

Newsweek has contacted El-Sayed's campaign via email for comment.

John Geer, Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University who specializes in public opinion, told Newsweek that progressives have shown “some real strength in 2026,” which “speaks to the anger out there.”

“But to turn it into winning in November, they need to appeal to independents and unhappy Republicans,” he said.

The results leave Democrats facing a question that will not be answered until November: whether progressive candidates can extend their appeal beyond the party’s base in competitive races, or whether more moderate nominees would have given the party a better chance of defeating Republicans.

El-Sayed’s first challenge will be to unite Democrats after a divisive primary before trying to win independents in a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024. Stevens offered El-Sayed her support after the result, saying she would back him against Rogers.

He overcame a large outside-spending campaign supporting Stevens—more than $50 million was spent by outside groups backing her, including $30 million from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Michigan’s 2024 results show how close the contest could be as Trump won, while Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin defeated Rogers in the Senate race.

Polling in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race remains tight. An EPIC-MRA/MIRS poll conducted July 24-31 has Rogers ahead, 46 percent to 43 percent. The survey included 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A poll from MIRS/Mitchell Research, conducted July 28-29 among 672 likely voters, found the candidates tied at 45 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.77 percentage points. The RealClearPolling average shows a close race overall, with Rogers at 44.3 percent and El-Sayed at 44 percent.

Greer argued that El-Sayed’s victory “probably does make winning Michigan’s Senate seat in the fall a bit harder. But it does not put it out of reach.

“The key will be what kind of campaign he runs. If he is overly ideological, that is bad news for Democrats. If he talks about affordability and corruption, that strengthens his chance of winning.”

Among the progressive candidates who have secured nominations, Lawrence faces one of the most competitive contests. The Sunrise Movement co-founder will challenge first-term Republican Representative Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District.

Trump carried the district by about 1 point in 2024, while Barrett won the House race with 50.3 percent of the vote. The Cook Political Report lists the seat among Democrats’ leading targets, meaning Lawrence’s performance will offer another indication of whether progressive candidates can attract general-election voters in closely divided territory.

McKinney and Rabb will run in districts with much stronger recent Democratic results . In Michigan’s 13th District, McKinney defeated Representative Shri Thanedar, who received 68.7 percent of the vote in 2024.

Rabb won the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania’s open 3rd District seat in May. The Democratic incumbent ran unopposed in 2024, receiving more than 340,000 votes.

Mejía, meanwhile, has already passed a general-election test. She defeated Republican Joe Hathaway in an April special election for New Jersey’s 11th District, receiving about 60 percent of the vote.

The list of statewide progressive candidates could grow after the August 11 primaries. Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is seeking the Democratic nomination for an open Senate seat, while Wisconsin state Representative Francesca Hong is competing for her party’s gubernatorial nomination.

If either one wins, progressives would gain another opportunity to test their appeal across an entire state. Until then, Lawrence’s swing-district campaign stands alongside El-Sayed’s Senate bid as among the clearest November measures of the movement’s reach beyond safely Democratic territory.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Dave Siminoff .

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