North Dakota State college football futures: Former FCS powerhouse set at 8.5 wins in first FBS season

The 2026 college football season kicks off just three weeks from Saturday, and there are two schools making the move from the FCS to the FBS this season: North Dakota State to the Mountain West and Sacramento State to the Mid-American Conference. Originally, neither school was eligible for postseason play in its first transition year to the FBS. However, in June the NCAA Division I Cabinet approved a measure permitting teams transitioning from FCS to FBS to be immediately eligible for postseason competition. The Bison were the top program at the lower level for many years, so let's focus on what we should expect from them in 2026 from a futures betting perspective.

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The Mountain West will look very new overall this season after losing Boise State , Colorado State , Fresno State , San Diego State and Utah State to the new-look Pac-12. The Mountain West is adding North Dakota State (football-only) along with Northern Illinois (football-only) and UTEP (all sports) but is down to 10 schools, its fewest since 2012.

UNLV is the current +260 favorite after losing in the past three conference title games to Boise State, with the Rebs followed by New Mexico (+265) and NDSU (+300). To simply reach that title game, the Bison have the shortest odds of -130.

North Dakota State had won 10 of the past 15 FCS national championships. The Bison finished 12-1 last year and reached the FCS playoffs for a 16th straight season but were stunned in the second round by Illinois State to snap their FCS-record streak of 15 straight quarterfinals appearances.

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Led by quarterback Cole Payton, NDSU had a school-record 10 first-team picks on the All-Missouri Valley Conference team and seven players named to the AP FCS All-American Team, including three first-teamers. Payton led the FCS in passing yards per attempt (12.1) and ranked second in completion percentage (71.9) and pass efficiency (193.8 – a school record).

Payton was a fifth-round choice in the 2026 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. He will be replaced under center by Nathan Hayes . The senior appeared in 10 games last year as the backup, throwing for 381 yards and four scores.

Star wideout Bryce Lance, the younger brother of former NDSU star quarterback Trey Lance, was a first-team All-American and Walter Payton Award finalist last year, catching 51 balls for 1,079 yards and eight scores. He became the first North Dakota State player with multiple 1,000-yard receiving seasons and was a fourth-round pick in this year's draft by New Orleans.

It was the fourth time in six years the Bison had multiple draft picks. The Bison also lost top offensive lineman and center Trent Fraley , the 2025 Rimington Award winner who transferred to Michigan State . Offensive tackle Beau Johnson started every game and is now at Vanderbilt .

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Because of all the schools shifting, there was no official preseason Mountain West poll, but North Dakota State, coached by Tim Polasek since 2023, has an overall win total of 8.5 and 5.5 in the conference. The Bison might have to win with defense first after leading the FCS in total defense (251.8) and scoring defense (13.0) last year. But that group lost three key starters in the transfer portal in end Toby Anene ( Colorado ), linebacker Nathaniel Staehling ( Michigan ) and cornerback Jailen Duffie (UCF).

NDSU is 6-2 in its past eight matchups vs. FBS opponents, and all those were on the road, but lost the past two against Colorado (2024) and Arizona (2022) -- both were close.

It opens on Aug. 29 at home on CBS Sports Network against Jacksonville State , a pretty good Conference USA program that has been an official FBS member for only three years but won nine games exactly in all three campaigns. That game is a rematch of the 2015 FCS Championship Game. NDSU is currently a 7.5-point favorite for spread betting .

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North Dakota State then returns to the FCS in Week 2 to host Fordham before visiting Air Force on Sept. 12 in its first Mountain West matchup. The first conference foe to visit Fargo will be Wyoming for homecoming on Oct. 3. That'd be fun to attend.

If the Bison run the table at the Fargodome, which is very possible if not likely, that gets us to six total wins and four in the conference. It will be very tough to win at UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii , which brings back arguably the conference's best quarterback. NDSU could win the rest away: Air Force, Sacramento State (non-conference) and San Jose State , but the Bison would have to sweep those games to land Over 8.5 victories.

I'm going take the DraftKings alternate total of 9.5 wins and bet the Under at -225. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts North Dakota State at 8.2 wins and gives the Bison a 21.8% chance at capturing the Mountain West title but only a 11.1% shot to win at least 10 regular-season games.

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: CBS Sports. Open at source →