Schumer's path to the majority runs through his Democratic critics

On a good day, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer can see a Democratic majority in 2027.

Why it matters: On a bad one, he can see the caucus that comes with it.

Abdul El-Sayed's 48.5% to 47.5% victory over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) exposed an uncomfortable reality for Schumer: Some of the Democrats most likely to deliver him a majority may also be the hardest to lead .

"If you're Chuck Schumer, I'm dangerous," El-Sayed said during the campaign . "If you're AIPAC, I'm dangerous. If you're a corporate PAC, I'm dangerous."

Driving the news: Schumer was quick to endorse El-Sayed Wednesday, like he did after Graham Platner clobbered his preferred candidate in Maine.

"We look forward to working with Abdul and Democrats across Michigan to win this seat in November," Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senate campaign arm, said in a joint statement.

El-Sayed didn't directly comment on the endorsement Wednesday. "There's a lot of healing to do after a hard-fought primary like this," he said. "Always magnanimity in victory."

What we're watching: The next test for Schumer comes Aug. 11 in Minnesota, where voters will choose between progressive favorite Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), the preferred choice of the Democratic establishment.

It's the Minnesota Nice version of the ugly proxy war between the party's two wings — with a twist. Unlike in Michigan or Maine, the Democratic nominee is all but certain to win in November.

Flanagan, who leads in the polls, has declined to say whether she'd support Schumer for Democratic leader.

Ditto Democrats' Texas nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, who has called for "new blood" in Washington.

El-Sayed backs progressive Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) who "has shown what effective leadership in the Senate looks like."

Zoom out: Schumer's problem is one most minority leaders would envy: He has several paths to the majority, even if he ends up with a few more detractors.

And he isn't overly concerned with candidates declining to pledge support for him before Election Day. His mantra: Just win.

Two of the Democrats' best pick-up opportunities are Ohio and Alaska, where Schumer personally recruited former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) to run.

And neither Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire nor former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina — who are both leading in polls — are anti-leadership firebrands.

The bottom line: Schumer finds himself in the same boat as the man he wants to dethrone: Majority Leader John Thune .

Both will have freshman senators who owe their victories—and perhaps their loyalties—to political movements and constituencies beyond their orbit.

But Schumer may have the better insurance policy. No one has expressed any public interest in the job.

Indexed and credited by AIPROPX. Originating outlet: Axios. Open at source →