US-Iran War Spreads to Another Major Sea, Risking New Suez Crisis for NATO

Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy

0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. A drone strike against Egypt 's Damietta port near the Suez Canal has brought the Mediterranean Sea closer to the U.S.- Iran war raging across the Middle East , risking another major disruption to global trade and stability that could spark new problems for NATO .

The attack, which is yet unclaimed by any party, marks the first time such an incident has hit the northern approach to the Suez Canal as a renewed campaign by Iran 's ally in Yemen , Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement, has threatened to once again shutter Red Sea traffic from the south. Tehran, meanwhile, continues to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, throttling another critical waterway, in response to Washington's attacks.

But the Mediterranean is not only a vital hub for commerce: It also represents NATO's southern flank. And the Suez Canal has been a particular point of interest for European members, with Egypt's 1956 nationalization of the canal sparking a joint U.K.-French invasion alongside Israel seven decades ago.

Then, the U.S. and Soviet Union came together to demand a withdrawal by the three nations. Now, it's Washington that's calling on its European allies to aid in a regional conflict.

NATO has been broadly reluctant to intervene in the U.S.-Israeli war launched against Iran in February, drawing stark criticism from President Donald Trump. Should the conflict further encroach on the bloc's area of responsibility, however, it could complicate this calculus, especially with threats already spilling over from the Russia-Ukraine war to the east.

"NATO remains focused on threats emanating from two directions—first and foremost, Russia, but secondly, instability from the south," John Deni, senior fellow at NATO Defense College and the Atlantic Council who has consulted for the U.S. military in Europe, told Newsweek . "In recent years, that southern threat has been conceived of primarily in terms of transnational terrorism."

"However, NATO’s missile defense architecture has long been designed—especially in terms of where the radars (in Türkiye) and launchers (in Romania and Poland) are positioned—to deal with the threat from Iran, among others," he added.

Should Iran be found responsible for the strike in Egypt, Deni warned, "this could represent a serious escalation and spur concerns among Europeans that the Iran war is coming closer to them, whether they want to be involved or not."

Some eight NATO nations have coastlines along the Mediterranean; nine to include the United Kingdom's control over Gibraltar. The expansive body of water has been a strategic theater since the early days of the Cold War, as NATO and the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact competed for influence.

Russia's Mediterranean naval presence received renewed attention amid its 2015 intervention in the Syrian civil war in defense of President Bashar al-Assad, whose father granted Moscow naval basing rights in the 1970s. Following the ultimate downfall of Assad to a rebel blitz in December 2024, the status of Russia's only permanent Mediterranean port remains uncertain.

As for NATO, its primary operations in the Mediterranean for the past decade have been coordinated via Operation Sea Guardian. The standing mission seeks to enhance maritime security, heighten readiness and combat illicit trafficking.

But the threat posed by long-range drones has proved difficult even for NATO's heightened state of awareness since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. Vulnerabilities have been most frequently demonstrated in the penetration of eastern borders by drones and missiles linked to Russia, such as occurred in Poland on Thursday amid a Russian bombardment of Ukraine.

The Mediterranean has not been immune, either. In early March, just days into the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, loitering munitions— or suicide drones —reportedly launched by Iran targeted the Royal Air Force base in the U.K.-controlled region of Akrotiri in Cyprus, with one managing to penetrate interception efforts.

A new threat to the Suez could prove even more disruptive given its unique status as the only direct link between the Red and Mediterranean Seas.

Ansar Allah's previous efforts to disrupt maritime commerce in the Red Sea launched in response to the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023 forced some two thirds of ships to reroute thousands of miles around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Ansar Allah paused operations only with the signing of the Israel-Hamas peace deal in October, but resumed strikes targeting Saudi-linked vessels this month as regional unrest only deepens.

"The Suez Canal is obviously a major thoroughfare for goods—about 30 percent of all global container traffic flows through it each year," Deni said. "As such, it’s as important for the global economy as the Strait of Hormuz is for energy markets around the world."

"Capital flees insecurity and instability, and so threats to security and stability in places like the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean mean that shippers and their insurers will prefer other routes or will demand higher rates," he added. "This has the potential to slow trade and drive up prices, as goods are rerouted or as prices rise to account for the increased risk of sending cargo through these regions."

Karen Young, political economist serving as senior research scholar for the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, also pointed to the global effects of an expanding crisis.

"We have now three major chokepoints under threat in the Bab al-Mandab, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal, so global trade is at risk, though traffic through Suez never quite recovered from the earlier Houthi threats from several years ago," Youn...

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