What could trigger driver-market drama after new Verstappen, Norris deals?

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After a summer of speculation, contract extensions for Max Verstappen and Lando Norris suggest the elite seats on the Formula 1 grid are locked in for at least the next couple of years.

Four-time world champion Verstappen had been linked with a move to either Mercedes or McLaren but instead signed a Red Bull extension that ties him to the team until 2030.

There was little doubt that reigning world champion Norris' long-term future lay with McLaren, but team and driver made that official by announcing a multi-year extension on Saturday.

Meanwhile, it was perhaps the superb form of championship leader Kimi Antonelli that convinced Mercedes boss Toto Wolff he didn't need to poach Verstappen from Red Bull.

Given Wolff and Mercedes also manage Antonelli, there appears little doubt that he will remain with the Silver Arrows for many years to come. George Russell's situation is similar, and the Brit has repeatedly expressed his desire to remain with Mercedes.

Ferrari gave Charles Leclerc an extension in June, while Lewis Hamilton has insisted on several occasions this year that he has no plans to hang up his helmet any time soon.

With the line-ups of F1's 'big four' teams seemingly set for the short-term future, Sky Sports F1 examine when and how that situation could change.

While both Mercedes and McLaren have a track record of avoiding giving one driver priority status over the other, George Russell and Oscar Piastri are at risk of becoming seen as second fiddles.

Norris crucially came out on top of Piastri in the battle for last year's drivers' title, and has adapted to F1's new 2026 cars much faster than the Australian.

Russell started the year as the title favourite but has been clearly outperformed by Antonelli, with the Italian retaining huge amounts of room for improvement having only turned 20 last week.

Both Piastri and Russell will retain belief that they can turn the tables on their team-mates, next season if not during the remainder of their current campaigns, but there is no guarantee that will be achieved.

In the event either driver continues to be consistently outperformed over the next 18 months, they might begin to feel that their prospects of winning a maiden championship would ultimately be improved by a switch of team.

Hamilton has insisted he plans to be around for a while yet, but it remains to be seen how long the 41-year-old will continue in F1.

He's understood to have an option in his current deal to drive for the team until the end of the 2028 season, which would take him to the brink of his 44th birthday.

While Fernando Alonso continues to amaze by competing in F1 at the age of 45, the Spaniard's example is far from the norm, and Hamilton driving beyond 2028 would be surprising to many.

That means there is a decent chance a Ferrari seat opens up for the 2029 season, if not earlier.

Britain's Oliver Bearman, who has been loaned out to Haas from the Ferrari junior programme, is a candidate from within, but the opportunity to drive in the Italian team's iconic red will always attract interest from just about every driver on the grid.

Red Bull have convinced Verstappen to sign a contract extension until 2030, but both team and driver refused to confirm whether the new deal includes the sort of exit clauses that have created so much chatter around the Dutchman's future for the last couple of years.

There's little doubt that Verstappen won't be content accepting the level of performance his team are currently producing, with Red Bull lagging behind Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren.

The 28-year-old is clearly going to give the Milton Keynes squad the chance to get back in the mix next year, but should they fail to do so, chatter will inevitably resume around potential alternative options for 2028.

We're already aware that Mercedes and McLaren engaged in talks over signing Verstappen at various stages over the last couple of years, so those channels of communication are open.

And if Hamilton were to decide to retire, there is little doubt that Ferrari would join the list of potential suitors.

Another factor that could shake up the driver market would be a team breaking up the dominance of the sport's established top four teams.

Several teams saw the introduction of both new power unit and chassis regulations in 2026 as an opportunity to make a jump, but the top four has been unchanged.

The team with perhaps the biggest aspirations were Aston Martin, but they have woefully underdelivered, and it remains to be seen how quickly Honda can get its troublesome power unit up to speed.

If Honda were somehow able to have their engine in the same ballpark as the leading manufacturers by the start of next season, few would bet against Aston Martin team principal Adrian Newey overseeing a chassis design up there with the best on the grid.

If Aston Martin, or any other team, somehow became a contender for race wins sooner rather than later, there would be another serious option for the drivers currently occupying the sport's most-wanted seats.

Formula 1 heads to Monza for Ferrari's home race at the Italian Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

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