Democrats Within Striking Distance of Defeating GOP to Flip Texas—New Poll

0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Republicans' decadeslong hold on Texas statewide offices will be tested this November, with the Senate race between GOP nominee Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico in a deadlock and a close governors race between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Governor Greg Abbott , according to a new poll.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making it one of the nation's longest-running Republican strongholds. Democrats have repeatedly targeted the state as demographic shifts and population growth have reshaped its electorate, but they have fallen short in a series of closely watched campaigns, including Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate bid against Ted Cruz.

Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a potential swing state for years without much success, but the party believes President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating along with Democratic nationwide wins could fuel momentum. The Lone Star State has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980.

“The only poll that matters is November 3rd,” Nick Maddux, a campaign spokesperson for Paxton, told Newsweek in a Thursday email.

He continued, “When Texans get a look at James Talarico's actual record including endorsing reparations, voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures, attacking oil and gas jobs, and backing the largest tax increase in Texas history, there is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save him. Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream."

Some analysts see a more competitive political landscape, though are weary if Democrats will prevail, such as Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, who told Newsweek , “Talarico could win this race, but reality intrudes; no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in more than thirty years and though 2026 is shaping up to be a good Democrat year, be careful.”

Newsweek has reached out to Abbott, Hinojosa, and Talarico’s campaigns for comment via email on Thursday.

The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, a cycle that includes several other high-profile open-seat races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.

Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch ally of Trump who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022. A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015.

Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.

The incumbent is viewed by forecasters and prediction markets as a strong favorite for reelection, with the Cook Political Report ranking the race as “solid Republican,” though polls suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over O’Rourke in 2022.

Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority, so Democrats are hoping to flip at least four seats to gain control of the chamber, with strategists eyeing the Texas seat as a pickup opportunity. The state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.

Surveys show both Paxton and Talarico holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup comes after Paxton defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff in late May.

Multiple recent surveys have indicated a highly competitive contest between Paxton—who has been endorsed by Trump—and Talarico, the Democrat who has served as state representative since 2018 and was previously a middle school teacher.

Paxton is Texas' attorney general with a history of legal issues. In 2015, he was indicted on state securities fraud charges related to activities before taking office. He pleaded not guilty. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023, which approved 20 articles against him. The Senate acquitted him. The Republican has repeatedly dismissed the impeachment and other allegations as politically motivated.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters puts the Senate race in a dead heat, with 47 percent backing Paxton and 46 supporting Talarico. About 5 percent are undecided and 2 percent back a different candidate. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, putting Paxton’s lead within that.

“This polling shows Ken Paxton has consolidated Republican support, moving the race closer to even after several months of polls showing him behind. This race is close because there are significant numbers of independent voters breaking for Talarico," Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told Newsweek in a Thursday email.

After Cornyn's loss, some analysts questioned whether supporters of the longtime senator would unite behind Paxton.

The Senate race "is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

The poll found Republicans to have a bigger lead in the gubernatorial race, with 49 percent supporting Abbot and 45 percent backing Hinojosa. About four percent were undecided.

“Majorities of Texas Hispanic voters are dissatisfied with their federal and state executives: 58% of Hispanic voters disapprove of President Trump and 57% of Governor Abbott,” Kimball noted. “This demographic also breaks for the Democrat on the ballot, by 19 for Talarico and 17 for Hinojosa.”

Regarding the governor's race, Jillson highlighted Abbott’s significant fundraising, saying “Abbott’s spending down the stretch will likely expan...

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