RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) fumbles the ball in the third quarter against Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Ethan Downs (40) thrid quarter during an NCAA college football game at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023 in Dallas, Texas. This game makes up the119th rivalry match up. (Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman)
Earlier this month, Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian presented a hard-hitting hypothesis.
Turnovers = trouble.
"I think in the SEC last year, if you won the turnover battle, 80% of the time you won the game," Sarkisian told reporters after a team scrimmage on Aug. 22. "Like, just think about that stat alone. If you win the turnover battle in our conference, you have an 80% chance to win the game. I think the last time we lost a game where we won the turnover battle was the Alamo Bowl."
Sarkisian seems like a trustworthy source, and what he's saying makes sense. But don't threaten a journalist with a good time... er, chance to research and verify a statistic.
Since a 27-20 loss to Washington in the 2022 Alamo Bowl in which the Longhorns had no turnovers to the Huskies' one, UT has lost eight times. And there has been a turnover trend in those defeats..
Oklahoma 34, Texas 30 (Oct. 7, 2023): Texas had three turnovers while Oklahoma had zero.
Washington 37, Texas 31 (Jan. 1, 2024): Texas had two turnovers while Washington had one.
Georgia 30, Texas 15 (Oct. 19, 2024): Texas had four turnovers while Georgia had three .
Georgia 22, Texas 19 (Dec. 7, 2024): Texas had three turnovers while Georgia had two.
Ohio State 28, Texas 14 (Jan. 10, 2025): Texas had two turnovers while Ohio State had one.
Ohio State 14, Texas 7 (Aug. 30, 2025): Texas had one turnover while Ohio State had zero.
Florida 29, Texas 21 (Oct. 4, 2025): Texas and Florida both had two turnovers.
Georgia 35, Texas 10 (Nov. 15, 2025): Texas and Georgia both had one turnover.
As for UT's 35 wins over the past three seasons, the Longhorns won the turnover battle in 22 of those contests and matched the other team's miscues on nine occasions. Texas won four games during that span - against Baylor and Kansas State in 2023 and UTSA and Mississippi State in 2024 - in which it committed more turnovers than its opponent, and then-UT starting quarterback Quinn Ewers was injured for the majority of three of those contests.
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Now, let's take a look at Sarkisian's SEC statistic. Including the conference championship game and two playoff showdowns, there were 67 games last season that featured two SEC opponents . The winners of 33 of those games also won the turnover battle, and the winner was tied in that statistical column on 18 other occasions. There were just 16 instances - or 23.9% - in which an SEC team beat another SEC team while committing more turnovers.
"If we can possess the ball, and if we can create turnovers, we give ourselves an enormous chance to win the game. The numbers just tell us so," Sarkisian said. "That's how valuable the ball is. That's how valuable turnovers are."
Not surprisingly, winning the turnover battle isn't just a key to success in the SEC. Two of the last three national champions led the country in turnover margin.
Texas Longhorns defensive back Kobe Black (6) intercepts a pass intended for Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Mario Craver (1) during the Lone Star Showdown at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. (Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman)
Texas fared well with turnovers during the 2025 season
Last season, Texas ranked fourth among Football Bowl Subdivision-level teams in turnover margin after it forced 23 turnovers while giving away the football nine times. Texas hadn't posted a top-10 turnover margin since the Longhorns were plus-11 during their 2015 campaign.
"I know we want to talk about penalties and explosive plays, the turnover margin is the No. 1 stat that equates to winning and losing football games," Sarkisian said during another press conference this summer. "I go back to that every year because it is so important to our success, and this year's been no different."
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Of UT's nine turnovers last season, eight were committed by players that are back on the Texas roster this year. Defensively, Texas lost 56.3% of its interceptions and 57.1% of its forced fumbles, but senior safety Jelani McDonald recorded a team-high three interceptions and a fumble recovery last season.
Sign up for the Daily Briefing from the Austin American-Statesman. Start your day with the must-read headlines from Austin's most trusted news source. This article originally published at Why Texas football's 2026 season could be defined by turnovers, per Steve Sarkisian .
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