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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 1h ago
The Blame Game
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 30: General Manager Jerry Dipoto speaks with manager Scott Servais #9 of the Seattle Mariners during Opening Day at T-Mobile Park on March 30, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Nobody gets to fire two managers in two years.
Jeff Passan went on the radio on Tuesday and placed the blame for the Mariners season at the feet of manager Dan Wilson. Passan heavily implied Wilson should be replaced, using logic I’ve seen plenty throughout the season: This roster is far too talented to be playing this poorly.
Let’s just look at some projections. There are plenty of models out there, and you should consider them all, but I use Steamer because it’s 1) easily accessible through FanGraphs, 2) the most conservative on this iteration of the Mariners, and 3) disturbingly accurate at projecting their full-season fWAR. Here we can see how Steamer compares to the Mariners actual fWAR since 2016.
Now, WAR are not wins (we’ll get there), but projected WAR are still quite good at projecting the actual standings. In fact, at just about any point in the season, if you want to know how well a team will play the rest of the year, you’re about as well off trusting preseason projections as their performance to date. That’s why things like FanGraphs playoff odds can look skeptical of surges and collapses, and why the Mariners still have good odds to make the playoffs.
This makes projections an essential reference for assessing a team, pre-, mid- and post-season. Yes, I appreciate “um actually the forecast clearly states” sounds like the thing I say before getting shoved into a locker. But if you’re demanding someone get fired from a baseball team on the internet, well, I suppose I’ll find you in the locker with me.
We can see a few things from this plot. First, there’s a nice linear relationship between projected WAR and the final standings, but there’s clearly some variance. Lots of things determine how many games a team wins beyond their talent on Opening Day. Teams can play above, at, or below their talent level. They can get good, neutral, or poor luck. They can run up against injuries and schedules and umpires and God. Perhaps coaches matter, too.
We can also see the Mariners tend to get out of their seasons what they put in. In Jerry Dipoto’s tenure, the roster has either met or exceeded expectations every single season. They’ve been exceptionally predictable, a metronome set to 54 beats per minute — the perfect tempo for a dirge.
Let’s look at this another way. I created some buckets for preseason WAR and found the end-of-season outcomes for each. The table below shows the median win total, as well as the high- and low results:
From 2023 and to 2025, the Mariners began the season with the expectations of a “good” team. These teams typically win about 54% of their games and finish 12th in the majors overall. It’s the minimum threshold to enter a season with playoff expectations, generally as the Wild Card. That’s pretty much exactly what they got in those years.
This year, however, the Mariners took a tepid step forward, dipping a toe into great (on paper). This bucket contains a broad range of projected WAR, and the Mariners 43.5 WAR was at the very bottom end, bearing closer resemblance to “good” than “elite.” Maybe we could call this “very good.” Regardless, it’s fair to say this roster was a bit more than those of the past, and also not quite.
Even still, plenty of teams even at this level wind up with less than great results. If we look back up at the plot above, the 2026 Mariners are still within a typical range of outcomes given the quality of their roster. What’s happening this year isn’t weird or uncommon, even if it is disappointing.
Now, from this perspective, I could see why some would point the finger at the coaching staff. It’s weird for this team to underperform. I also appreciate why some fans are willing to excoriate specifically Wilson. His predecessor, Scott Servais, was fired for delivering exactly what his rosters deserved, and Wilson was hired in his place with no managerial experience. The choice was seen as the latest evidence that the org is addicted to its memberberries and prioritizes image over substance. And in his time as manager, Wilson hasn’t made himself easy to like. He’s boring in press conferences, unwilling or unable to say… anything. He doesn’t explain his decisions, he doesn’t take accountability or say who should. He’s about as vacant publicly as his Funko Pop, the only difference being the one in the dugout comes with string-activated “ums” and “ahs” and “tough ones.”
But that Wilson is limiting this team doesn’t quite satisfy as a scapegoat. If we’re saying that coaching staffs matter, and perhaps they do, well, just last year Wilson led the Mariners to 90 wins and a deep playoff run. The year before, Wilson took over with roughly six weeks left in the season — having no managerial experience — and went 21-13, or a 100-win pace. Up until this latest slump, Wilson held the best record in team history, and one of the five best records among active managers overall. If the manager matters, and we’re dinging Wilson for this stretch, then we’re also giving him credit as one of the best managers in the majors before it. Maybe Wilson doesn’t do as well in the Cool Xiennial Podcasto Sphere as someone like Tony Vitello, and maybe his face isn’t nearly as red John Schneider’s. But he seems to be a kind, humble guy, sufficient in the minor art of field managing, and liked enough in the locker ro...
General Manager Jerry DipotoScott ServaisSeattle MarinersOpening DayMobile ParkSeattleWashingtonPhotoSteph ChambersGetty ImagesNobodyJeff Passan
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