RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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My 2026 fantasy football busts are simply based on who I’ve been drafting the least in my paid leagues. I’ll easily clear 200 drafts this season, and the players I’ve taken in 0-4% of them are the players that you’ll see in today’s column. If I’m wrong, then I’m literally paying for it.
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Round 1: James Cook, BUF (4% exposure) & Justin Jefferson, MIN (7%)
Cook was the RB6 per game last year, even though he led the NFL in rushing yards and carries per game. His 16.0 half-PPR points per game were 2.0 to 5.0 points behind the top-five backs (CMC, Taylor, Bijan, Gibbs and Achane) largely because he hasn’t been a pass-catching back to date. That could change, but it makes less sense for that to happen this year with Dalton Kincaid healthier and DJ Moore added. If he is close to the 1.9 receptions per game (RB39), then he doesn’t have the ceiling to compete with the potentially elite Gibbs, Nacua, Chase, Bijan, CMC, JT, etc. teams.
Jefferson was the WR31 last year. It will be nowhere near that bad with Kyler Murray, but the fact that this just happened makes him a no brainer for this exercise. I have him 16th overall in half-PPR behind the clear-cut fantasy RB1s. He’s a late Round 1 option in full-PPR.
Round 2: Ashton Jeanty, LV (2% exposure) & Josh Allen, BUF
The vague ankle injury is one thing. Jeanty could miss 0-4 games off the bat, and he’s at greater re-injury risk upon his return. But Jeanty was on my fade list before the prayer circle. The Raiders will be better than last year, yet still concerning up front, at QB and at WR. They’re projected for 19.2 points per game (28th) and all of the RBs near him are in top-16 offenses aside from De’Von Achane. Jeanty is likely good, but I can’t say his rookie tape (or advanced metrics ) showed an elite back, where I at least can easily make that case with Achane via tape or numbers. Jeanty’s workload will be very large this year, and it could still come down from his rookie year (RB11 usage) with fourth-rounder Mike Washington Jr. providing far more depth than who was behind Jeanty last season when he was the RB16 in half-PPR points per game.
Here's a chart looking at where Ashton Jeanty stacks up in EPA per carry vs. yards per carry. PPRRankings.com
Allen’s fade is simply a pricing issue on Yahoo. When he's available at the Round 3/4 turn, I’ve been taking him about 9% of the time, which is in line with everyone else. But on Yahoo, his ADP is in Round 2. That’s just too rich based on the fantasy points over replacement research I’ve done using half-PPR scoring, where he’s finished between 18th and 30th overall in four-straight seasons. In full-PPR, his score would be lower. Allen has played at an MVP level with elite red-zone rushing production across those seasons, and he nets out as an early Round 3 pick. It’s hard for him to provide as much of an advantage over a suddenly deep fantasy QB pool. I wrote about this concept here .
Round 3: Trey McBride, ARI (2%) & Rashee Rice, KC (1%)
Recent history suggests that we have to be very careful with drafting elite TEs (see chart below). Trey McBride was the exception last year (I had him 13th overall, to be fair), but there are too many new variables to feel confident about a repeat. McBride led the regular season in routes by 63, not just at TE, but all players. The garbage time points were out of control, and the Cardinals were quietly No. 1 in neutral pass rate. That’s just not going to happen with coach Mike LaFleur on the sticks and with third-overall pick Jeremiyah Love in the backfield. They will be more balanced. They could also be very bad! Arizona is 31st in projected points per game (18.5), only ahead of the Jets, who have just one pass-catcher (Garrett Wilson) drafted in the top-160 picks in fantasy. The Cardinals have three in the top 90. The target competition versus projected touchdowns math is hard to square, even with McBride being one of my absolute favorite players to watch right now.
Here's a look at when it's optimal to draft tight ends. Hayden Winks
Rice is still working his way back from a second surgery to his knee. It’s easy to forget that happened because we were distracted from him being in jail for 30 days, but two surgeries on the same knee is never great, especially as he’s been unable to run without a glitch in camp. ESPN Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor believes it’s asking too much for Rice to clear 900 yards this season based on what he’s seen in camp. Rice has to be featured in a very distinct role to be as productive as he’s been because the rest of his game is quite limited. He’s the worst real-life receiver among anyone drafted in the top-60 overall picks in my opinion. The Chiefs seem poised to be more under center and run heavy with Patrick Mahomes returning from an ACL tear and with Kenneth Walker III providing a real rushing threat for the first time since Rice has been around.
Round 4: Joe Burrow, CIN
This round is great. I don’t have any real issues across the board, though Burrow as the QB4 at 48th overall on Yahoo is too rich. He’s been the QB5 per game since 2022, but the entire top-20 is within just 3.5 points per game from that. My favorite strategy in redraft is waiting until the Round 8-14 range and grabbing two QBs who are stacked up with the WR/TEs I’ve drafted. Burrow is somewhat justifiable on Ja’Marr Chase teams in Round 5 in half-PPR, but that’s the only time he should be going anywhere near this. I’ve taken Burrow in 10% of my drafts, but my personal ADP is 65th overall, not in Round 4.
Round 5: David Montgomery, HOU (4%) & Bucky Irving, TB (2%)
Montgomery must overcome his career wear-and-tear along with an OL that’s been horrific for the entirety of the C.J. Stroud era. The Texans are 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023 when DeMeco Ryans and Stroud were brought to Houston. If Montgomery is Joe M...
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