RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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If I were to ask you who the most profitable pitcher for MLB betting this year has been, I don't think Washington Nationals journeyman Foster Griffin would be your first guess. But that's exactly the case, and the lefty takes the hill on Friday night in Atlanta in what very well may be his final start for the Nationals with the MLB trade deadline looming on Monday. First pitch at Truist Park is set for 7 p.m. ET, and I've put together a two-leg same-game parlay for the game.
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At 55-55, Washington is right in the NL wild card mix, but the franchise signaled last weekend it was looking more toward the future by selling high on third baseman Curtis Mead and shipping him to Boston for promising young pitcher Connelly Early . I believe the Nationals are well aware it's time to sell high on Griffin as well, and this would be his final outing before the deadline.
The 31-year-old lefty is on his third career team and on a one-year, $5.5 million deal. Griffin, a former top prospect who was a first-round pick in the 2014 draft, had spent the past three seasons pitching in Japan for the Central League's Yomiuri Giants. We have seen players go over there, learn something new and then come back to the USA and be different pitchers. And Griffin was great in Japan with a 2.57 ERA in 315 2/3 innings. He added a sinker, sweeper and splitter to his fastball, cutter, curveball and changeup.
But there is just no way that Griffin is this good, and in fact an 82.9% strand rate and .249 BABIP hint that he is not a pitcher who should be 12-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Bettors who wagered $100 on Washington to win each of his 21 starts on the best betting apps would be up a whopping $1,393 with the team 17-4 in those 21 games.
That's the definition of "sell high" considering that entering 2026, the All-Star Griffin's big-league resume consisted of seven games, all in relief with Kansas City and Toronto, and a 6.75 ERA in 8.0 innings.
It would be easier to tell you which teams aren't interested in Griffin than which teams are, especially because he's a southpaw. But because he's on such a cheap deal and will walk after the year, it brings all the small-market contenders into play like Tampa Bay or Milwaukee. The Rays have reportedly had scouts at pretty much all of his starts.
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I will say that Griffin was a little more human last time out when he beat Arizona as he allowed three runs over 6 2/3 innings. That was a quality start but it snapped his streak of eight straight starts allowing no more than one earned run. Excluding openers, that was the longest streak in Nationals history.
Griffin is 2-0 with a 2.2 ERA in two starts vs. Atlanta this year spanning 12.0 innings and Braves batters are hitting only .186 off him. The model has him at 6.3 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs for Friday's start.
I believe Griffin is a bit of a fluke and I like this spot for NL East-leading Atlanta, which absolutely will add a starting pitcher, at minimum, by Monday's deadline but hasn't been linked to Griffin. The Braves are big-game hunting for Tarik Skubal and have the farm system to get him.
It's Bryce Elder (6-6, 3.96 ERA) on the mound for Atlanta, and he has been a solid No. 3, but really shouldn't be in that role in a playoff rotation. Elder has been solid out of the break at 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts, but the 27-year-old is going to give up at least one homer because he pretty much always does. Cleanup hitters have cleaned up on him this year, batting .417 with seven homers and a 1.396 OPS in 48 at-bats.
Elder has been tagged for 18 dingers on the season overall and at least one in eight straight. But he has been a fair amount better at home this year at 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA and .238 OBA. He is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA this year in two starts vs. the Nationals (one home, one away), who are batting only .170 off him. The model has Elder at 5.5 innings, 4.7 strikeouts, 5.6 hits allowed and 2.9 earned runs for Friday. So not very optimistic. I don't agree.
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I simply don't think Atlanta should be a home dog so will take the expensive +1.5 as insurance and add in the first-inning play to get this parlay to a reasonable if not great number. The model has the Braves winning outright .
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