RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Even though Major League Baseball's Aug. 3 trade deadline is mere days away -- mere hours away, if you're partial to higher numbers -- some teams are still trying to figure out how they're going to approach this vital date on the calendar.
Yes, the situation is that fluid, even with little time left on the clock. For that, you can thank -- or blame -- the muddled standings and the presence of that third wild-card slot in each league. Now more than ever, the lines between contenders and irrelevancies, and thus the line between buyers and sellers, are all too blurred. That's why we're regularly updating where MLB's 30 clubs stand when it comes to which bucket they'll be in for the deadline. Obvious buyer, likely buyer, something in the undefined middle, likely sellers, or obvious seller? We're here to lay out what each team is as zero hour approaches. Onward …
Of the above nine squads, six have playoff odds well north of 90%, according to SportsLine. The three that don't -- the Red Sox, Twins, and Phillies -- are in or very close to playoff position. The Red Sox, thanks to a 20-4 (!) mark in July, have surged back into contention, and the recent trade for the ( now injured ) Curtis Mead clearly established them as buyers. The Phillies are tied for second wild-card position in the National League going into Friday's slate of games after the team found its expected level under interim manager Don Mattingly. The Twins, meantime, recently declared themselves as deadline buyers and backed up with a trade for veteran lefty reliever AJ Minter of the Mets .
This next tier of teams features four that are in playoff position, albeit barely in most cases -- the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Guardians, and Rangers (yes, leading the AL West counts, against our better judgment). The remainder is within competitive range of the same. If there's one to watch in this group, it's probably the Mariners. Much was expected of Seattle this season, but this writing finds them at four games below .500. The bar in their division is gallingly low, so that will probably lure them into buyer position, but a hold or even soft sell in Seattle isn't hard to imagine.
The big question here is obviously whether the Tigers will deal away ace, two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, and pending free agent Tarik Skubal . Their record and spot in the standings all suggest they will, but at an underlying level, Detroit has played much better than its current record. It's certainly not hard to imagine a stretch-drive leveling up that gets them a third straight playoff berth. Current signs, though, seem to point to a Skubal trade. The Marlins also appear poised to sell thanks to their recent downturn in the standings, but we'll give them unknown status for now. The O's, meantime, have been disappointing again this season, but they're just 2 ½ games out of the third AL wild-card spot. It might be a gametime decision in Baltimore.
Yes, the reigning AL champs in Toronto have dug themselves too much of a hole to grade out as buyers. They're right now nine games under .500 and in last place in the AL East, and SportsLine gives them a paltry 4.2% chance of making the postseason. Maybe a weekend sweep of the Cardinals changes Toronto's mind at the last instant, but right now, at least a soft sell/pivot to 2027 seems probable. The Nats, with the aforementioned Mead trade with Boston, have signaled sell, but it remains to be seen whether that sell runs deep enough to include the likes of CJ Abrams and Foster Griffin . Will Cincy deal away Hunter Greene ? He has plenty of interest, as you would expect.
All but one of these teams is effectively buried in the standings to a hopeless degree and will be -- or already have been -- selling off veterans to contenders. The exception is the Cardinals. A dismal start to the second half has dropped them below .500 and into seller territory. They remain within range of a playoff spot, but the likely tack was always sell thanks to first-year president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom's emphasis on the long-term in St. Louis. Dustin May is certainly gone, as is one or more veteran walk-year relievers. Will the sell in St. Louis extend to a controllable player like Lars Nootbaar and maybe a catcher or two? That's the unknown right now.
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