RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The top of the Defensive Rookie of the Year oddsboard is loaded with Ohio State Buckeyes in the back seven, pass-rushers whose role and ability at the NFL-level is uncertain, and defensive backs who need an element of luck — the ball to frequently fall in their hands — in order to win.
So, before the season, we look further down the board to sprinkle across some long shots.
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Here are my favorite wagers for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award:
Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Dolphins (15-1)
We’re definitely not going to bet against Rodriguez, a former quarterback who turned himself into one of the best middle linebackers in college football at Texas Tech. So, why not bet on him to win a job, and be a difference-maker in the NFL?
Last year’s winner, Carson Schwesinger, moved up the oddsboard right before the season started and used the opportunity as a second-round pick on a bad team to rack up 156 total tackles for Cleveland. When none of the first-round pass-rushers emerged, and there weren’t enough counting stats for Nick Emmanwori, Schwesinger won DROY by a landslide.
Rodriguez, a second-round pick himself, should get every opportunity to beat out Tyrel Dodson in an effort to make him the Dolphins’ defensive quarterback of the future, and the present.
Malachi Lawrence, DE, Cowboys (25-1)
The late addition of Von Miller tells me one thing about the Cowboys: They are desperate for someone to provide a pass rush on the outside.
Or maybe Miller’s there to mentor Malachi Lawrence, whom Dallas liked so much that it reached to take him in the first round in April. That move indicates the Cowboys think they are in need of an upgrade from the only player in Lawrence’s way on the depth chart, Donovan Ezeiruaku.
With a full season of Quinnen Williams disrupting the interior of the line of scrimmage, one-on-one opportunities should be consistently available to whomever is getting third-down pass-rush snaps on the edge, and if it’s Lawrence, at least six sacks and some havoc created for a high-profile team should quickly shine a light on the former UCF Knight.
CJ Allen, LB, Colts (33-1)
Speaking of opportunity, CJ Allen is already pencilled in as a starter on the depth chart in the middle of Lou Anarumo’s Indianapolis defense. Anarumo has had tackling machines Germaine Pratt, Logan Wilson, and Zaire Franklin with the Bengals and Colts in the past, so, with Indy picking a Georgia linebacker in the second round, it seems like Allen’s being tabbed as the next one.
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Cashius Howell (55) rushes the quarterback during an NFL preseason football game against the Detroit Lions in Cincinnati, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026. AP Photo/Kareem Elgazzar
Cashius Howell, DE, Bengals (45-1)
Like the Cowboys, the Bengals are desperate for defensive havoc, and they picked Howell in the second round because 2023 first-rounder, Myles Murphy, has just 8.5 sacks so far in 47 career games.
Cincinnati’s offseason splashes — Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe — should take the focus of opposing protection schemes, so, under the same premise as Lawrence in Dallas, Cincinnati’s investment on the edge from Texas A&M is an intriguing long shot.
More than any other award market, Rookie of the Year swings wildly during the season, so there will be opportunity to beat bettors to the punch if a first-year player’s situation changes and he takes advantage of it early, but low-investment long shots are a good way to get started in building a portfolio.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell , at THE WINDOW .
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