RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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We used to be a proper society. We used to have the patience for a third-year breakout WR in fantasy football, but our attention spans have eroded by way of Big Algorithm. Luckily for you, you are still reading in the Big 2026, which means you probably do have some patience remaining.
This column investigates the 2024 WR Class. There's a lot of promise with their tape, even if poor QB play, gunshot wounds, Travis Kelce clotheslines and torn ACLs have been in the way so far. I weigh their tape, their analytics and their environment before deciding who I'm ranking ahead or behind their current Yahoo ADP .
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Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (25th overall, WR11)
The consensus around Nabers' timeline is about Week 3. That's what ESPN's Jordan Raanan hinted towards, noting it could be Week 1 ,to a short stint on PUP in the worst-end outcome. Nabers made progress in July after not looking right in a celebrity softball game in the offseason.
He needed a cleanup procedure for a meniscus that was locking up, in addition to rehabbing his torn ACL. Multiple issues adds to the risk, but at the same time, Nabers is a 22-year-old world-class athlete, even amongst NFL players.
If he's out Weeks 1-3, for example, it’s not like you’re forced to get 0 fantasy points in your starting lineup. It should be easy to find replacements when the rest of the league is healthy, so we should only knock him so much if his absence is, in fact, short. Players like this aren't immediately themselves, but after a month or so, they often are 80-90%.
Nabers has as much potential as anyone outside of Round 1 from Week 5 on. He is PPR's WR6 on WR3 usage on a per-game basis since his rookie year in 2024. The Giants were 27th in scoring, 26th in passing yards, 27th in passing success rate and 30th in EPA per dropback over that span, and he's barely played with Jaxson Dart, who is on pace to be a solid starting QB after making things work as a rookie himself. New York is still only projected for the 22nd-most points per the betting markets, but it should be a tier above what Nabers' has been used to.
I'm buying the dip now that his ADP has settled past the third round. If we learn he's going to play in Week 1 or Week 2, then he'd be going next to A.J. Brown and George Pickens quite comfortably.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (40th overall, WR19)
McConkey busted as a sophomore after an excellent rookie season.
There were a couple reasons for this. One, McConkey was playing through an injury, while Justin Herbert was running for his life behind the most-injured OL in the NFL. Second, Herbert's catchable ball percentage on McConkey targets dropped from 78% to 67%, despite seeing the same level of screens. All of his per-target stats dropped significantly for reasons beyond McConkey himself. Last, the Chargers used him slightly differently, while Quentin Johnston took a material leap in his third season and Unc Keenan Allen did in fact "still have it." Ladd's downfield routes dropped by 5% in favor of more things underneath.
McConkey was also worse himself. His contested catch rate dropped from 57% to 3-of-14. He picked up less yards after the catch per reception. He straight-up didn't earn targets at the same rate on either slot or outside reps. The emerging super star that we saw late in his rookie season wasn't there.
So what about 2026? It's very easy to see a healthy OL, a healthier McConkey and a new coaching staff having him produce closer to his rookie season (WR14 per game) versus last year's WR39 per-game finish. All matter, but the one to analyze most is the presence of OC Mike McDaniel, who ran a very unique offense with the Dolphins. Since 2022, Tua Tagovailoa's had the highest play-action rate of dropbacks (27%). Over the past two years, Herbert's average depth of throw is way deeper (8.2) than what Tua's was (6.1) with McDaniel.
In offseason videos, Herbert's stance has changed to where in one step he can throw these quick-hitting routes. All of those tweaks play into the McConkey strengths in terms of agility and explosiveness. That's how Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle exploded over the years with a QB less talented than Herbert. That's the upside if you're willing to buy into the bounce back.
The reasons for hesitancy in a loaded WR tier in Round 4 are McConkey's injury history at his size (6'0"/185) and the potential for lost routes with the Chargers four-deep at RB/FB, three-deep at TE and with the Tre' Harris blocking advantage at WR3. I wouldn't be surprised if McConkey is closer to 80% snaps instead of nearly 100% like others around him.
I have him as a Round 3-4 player in full-PPR and a firm Round 4 player in half-PPR as an upside WR2. That's the consensus on him.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears (55th overall, WR28)
Odunze is clearly a great athlete for his size as an X or Z receiver. The Bears split his time across all receiver positions, even getting him in motion pre-snap to get him up to speed. A lot of his route were intermediate and deep types, rather than getting schemed up underneath where his more mediocre YAC ability doesn't stand out compared to Colston Loveland or Luther Burden III.
Odunze's role led him to being sixth-highest in average depth of target, yet 73rd in catchable ball rate out of 79 WR qualifiers since 2024. There were inaccurate passes from Caleb Williams far too often, and then Odunze's physical style led to some incomplete passes while in tough situations.
Odunze only mustered up a WR36 per-game sophomore season on WR18 usage and WR22 targets per game (7.1). That level of usage should be maintained while DJ Moore's trade leaves a pathway to nearly full-time snaps.
On tape, Odunze can absolutely improve his feel for zone coverage and timing with his...
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