RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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The outlook for what the Federal Reserve is likely to do on interest rates continues to evolve as Kevin Warsh settles into his new role as Fed chair, inflation moves up and down, and new government data is published on both inflation and the labor market.
But at the moment, futures traders and the bond market expect at least two quarter-point rate hikes by the end of this year, and perhaps as many as four.
If you look at pricing in the federal funds futures market , an excellent way to gauge the collective outlook for the Fed's target interest rate, it suggests the odds of two or more quarter-point hikes this year are 61%. That market puts the odds of just one quarter-point cut at about 32%, and the likelihood the Fed will keep the target rate where it is now through the end of the year at 7%.
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