RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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Ian Machado Garry of Ireland reacts after a victory against Belal Muhammad of Palestine in a welterweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at Ali Bin Hamad Al Attiyah Arena (ABHA Arena) in Doha, Qatar, on November 22, 2025. (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
UFC 330 is live this Saturday (August 15, 2026) from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA, streaming exclusively on Paramount+ ( watch here ). The main event is for Welterweight gold with Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry . The co-main is also for a title with Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson .
Rounding out the main card is Charles Johnson vs. Jose Ochoa , Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus and Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics . There’s a good chance for highlight reel finishes in those fights.
The featured ‘Prelim’ is Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez , with Alvarez sliding in for the injured Geoff Neal . The undercard also has Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes , Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore and Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj .
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 330 Main Card Money Line Odds
Islam Makhachev (-340) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+270)
Makachev won the Welterweight title with an extremely one-sided fight with Jack Della Maddalena . He grounded the Aussie and beat him up across five entire rounds to take gold in his second UFC weight division. He finished his Lightweight champion career with defenses over Renato Moicano (a short notice replacement), Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski .
Machado Garry earns his first UFC title shot after a very convincing decision over Belal Muhammad in November. Before that he handed Carlos Prates his first UFC loss. He decisioned the Nightmare, but not after getting seriously hurt in the late stages. Machado Garry is now 10-1 in UFC with his loss being to Shavkat Rakhmonov , with a performance that earned the Irishman plenty of respect.
This is a really tough fight to call. And I’m surprised to see the odds so long on Machado Garry.
I think Makhachev wins this, but there are a lot of reasons why I’m not super confident in that assertion.
First, there’s the size factor. Despite what that face-to-face photo suggests, Machado Garry is the bigger man and he’ll have a very useful reach advantage against Makachev. Since Machado Garry is a very skilled outside fighter, his reach advantages might as well count as double. He can make his four inches of reach over Makhachev feel like eight.
There’s also an age factor, with Makhachev turning 35 in two months. At 28, Machado Garry is in his physical prime. It’s hard to tell if Makhachev’s age is catching up to him, though, since we see him so infrequently. I feel that if a drop off comes, then it will come as a big surprise. And, it’s more likely that Makhachev and his team will see that before we do, and he’ll follow Khabib Nurmagomedov ’s example and go out on top (maybe even this weekend).
The last factor I’m considering is how well Machado Garry does in bouts where I expect him to struggle. He looked great against the past and present boogeymen of the division (Rakhmonov and Prates) and I would not be shocked if he implements a perfect gameplan here and gets the gold.
Machado Garry is certainly confident that this happens. And I suppose that’s worth factoring in, too. I think a lot of fighters go into these Team Khabib fights thinking they are at such a disadvantage that they need to be lucky to win. I’ve interviewed Machado Garry and I can tell you, the man believes everything he is saying. So he is one hundred percent certain he’s getting his hand raised on Saturday.
That’s all well and good, but I think Makhachev is probably just as confident.
Despite how good I think Machado Garry is and how well he might do in this fight, I just can’t rule out the most obvious thing here. Islam Makhachev might be one of the best we’ve ever seen do this. His sambo is as smothering and brutal as anyone we’ve seen, including his mentor. And his striking is also elite, just ask Poirier; Makhachev was not afraid to throw down with.
I think Machado Garry might have his moments in this fight, but I don’t think those moments will get him a win. He doesn’t have the kind of killshot that could put down Makhachev, so he’s going to need to be perfect for five rounds to stop himself from getting taken down and mauled. I think it’s most likely that Makhachev has his moments, too, but they are longer and more punishing and that this will earn him the fight.
With the moneyline so short on Makhachev, I need to consider the round total. It’s set at 4.5. I think this is going to a decision, so I see why Vegas did this. The over is -180. That’s tempting, but there’s plus money out there if I’m brave enough to take it.
Makhachev by decision is +110. That’s going to be my best bet. I think we’re going to walk away from this fight saying, “Wow, Machado Garry is great”, but also “Damn, who can beat Makhachev?”
Best bet: Islam Makhachev by decision (+110)
Mackenzie Dern (-225) vs. Gillian Robertson (+185)
Dern won the vacant Strawweight title with a very dull unanimous decision over Virna Jandiroba in October. She earned that title with a submission over Amanda Ribas (see it here ) and a decision over Lupita Godinez . Getting a title fight off just a two fight win streak speaks volumes about the division.
That being said Robertson has banked this title shot off a lengthy winning streak. She’s won five in a row. The last one was a quality win over Amanda Lemos . Among her previous victories are a TKO over Marina Rodriguez and a decision over the retiring Michelle Waterson-Gomez .
I have a bad feeling about this fight.
Dern’s career has been an example of a grappling ace who can’t or doesn’t really implement her submission skills in an MMA cage. And this has led to a lot of boring fights from her where little happens and she attemp...
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