RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Representative Max Miller fell behind his Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter in a new poll of the battleground House district as the Republican congressman opted to stay in the race despite facing abuse allegations and calls to withdraw.
The new Tavern Research poll gave Poindexter an 8-point lead over the embattled Republican as the deadline for him to withdraw and allow Republicans to select a new nominee passed on Monday. Miller represents Ohio ’s 7th District, which is based around suburban and rural areas near Cleveland and backed President Donald Trump by 11 points.
Miller’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, has accused Miller of abuse, including allegations that he threatened her with a firearm and physically assaulted her, according to court filings and police interviews previously reported by multiple outlets. The New York Times reported that Moreno alleged Miller threw hot water from a skillet at her, held a gun to her head, pushed her against a wall and fractured their child’s collarbone.
Miller has denied all abuse allegations, with a spokesperson previously telling Newsweek , “The facts speak for themselves: the court has continued to permit him joint custody of his child. If there were credible evidence supporting these outrageous accusations, that simply would not be the case. Congressman Miller will continue to vigorously defend his reputation against false and reckless allegations designed to inflame public opinion rather than reflect reality. This narrative has gone on long enough.”
But the allegations upended Miller’s reelection as Democrats now view the district as a top flip opportunity in the November election.
The district has a Republican lean, though it is not overwhelming, and Democrats believe Miller’s scandals, as well as a favorable national environment driven by Trump’s declining national approval rating and cost-of-living concerns, give them an opportunity to flip the seat in November.
Newsweek reached out to the Miller and Poindexter campaigns for comment via email.
In the new poll from Tavern Research, 54 percent of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Poindexter in November, compared to 46 percent who said they would vote for Miller.
Miller’s favorability stood at 39 percent, while 50 percent said they viewed him unfavorably in the poll. Meanwhile, 41 percent said they viewed Poindexter favorably, compared to 25 percent who viewed him unfavorably. It surveyed 635 likely voters from August 4-5, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
A co/efficient poll, first reported by The New York Times , showed Poindexter with an even larger lead over Miller, 47 percent to 33 percent. The pollster noted that data “no longer supports a viable path to victory” for Miller, as 48 percent of voters said the allegations made them less likely to support his reelection bid.
It surveyed 615 likely voters from August 5-6, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.94 percentage points.
Two major election forecasters, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have formally moved the race into the toss-up category over the allegations after previously favoring Miller.
“The serious nature of the allegations — he’s been accused of throwing hot water at his wife, holding a gun to her head and fracturing his two-year-old daughter’s collarbone — make it much more difficult for Miller to hold his northeast Ohio seat, which typically favors Republicans but is a light enough shade of red to be competitive in a Democratic wave year,” Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey wrote in an update on Tuesday.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced on Tuesday that it is adding Poindexter to its “Red to Blue” program of top House targets. DCCC Chair Representative Suzan DelBene, a Washington Democrat, described him as “exactly the kind of leader Ohio families deserve in Congress.”
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Several prominent Republicans had called on Miller to withdraw from the race amid the allegations , as concerns grew that Democrats could flip the seat.
Senator Jon Husted, an Ohio Republican who was appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s Senate seat and is facing an election to finish the term this year, wrote on X that “anyone who commits domestic violence is not fit to serve in Congress.”
“Given everything they are facing, I do not see how a campaign for Congress benefits any of them. I believe Max would be making the right decision to step aside as a candidate and resign from Congress to focus on what is in the best interest of his daughter. Years from now, I believe he will look back and know it was the right choice for her,” he wrote.
Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, the father of Miller’s ex-wife, has also said that Miller should exit the race.
"If there are any basic standards of character required to hold elected office, Max Miller fails them," Moreno said earlier in August.
Trump, however, declined to call on Miller to step aside, previously saying he was "not going to get involved” and that it is a "very sad situation."
Miller’s decision to stay in the race means the Ohio district could become one of the most contested races of the midterms . Currently, Republicans hold a majority of 218 seats, while Democrats hold 212 seats; there is one independent and four vacancies. Democrats only need to pick up a handful of seats to win a majority.
The Cook Political Report classifies ...
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