RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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SARATOGA SPRINGS, NEW YORK - JUNE 06: Golden Tempo with Jose Ortiz up, wins the 158th running of the Belmont Stakes with with Commandment and John Velazquez up finishing second at Saratoga Race Course on June 06, 2026 in Saratoga Springs, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
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Leading Change’s breezy upset of the Triple Crown veterans Golden Tempo and Renegade, as well as the oncoming Sea Strike – whose odds the track money had loved all the way down to 7/2 by post time and who finished seventh – brought bright polish to Saratoga’s historic reputation as the “graveyard of champions." But Leading Change’s breathtaking charge down the lane had had more to it than that. His stretch run under the sure hands of Manny Franco, blazing by Belmont champ Golden Tempo, among others, instantly made him the poster boy for bringing fine Thoroughbreds along to a proper level of racing maturity at their own rate.
From the saddle on their trot to the winner’s circle, here’s what a breathless Manuel Franco said to the NYRA : "All I can say is wow, man! When he got to the outside (to take the lead in the last furlong) he just leveled out and, wow! What he accomplished today, I don’t know, sky’s the limit for him."
The practitioners of “contrarian wisdom” in handicapping the 2026 Travers field had a very good day, those that backed the relatively unloved-at-the-track Leading Change, who went off at 10-1 and Napoleon Solo, who left the gate at 7-1. What with top favorite Golden Tempo running – for his connections anyway – in a dispiriting show placing, the exacta, which obviously cuts out the favorite’s heavy downward pressure on the payouts, paid a very tidy $78.08 on a $1.00 bet. Let’s say you made that exacta a modest $10.00? Not too shabby for a quick bottle of the fine bubbly French stuff, or two, right at your table at the track.
One of the more prominent American Contrarians, Mr. Ed DeRosa of the Horse Racing Nation, as well as the British bookies, were early and clear-eyed proponents of Leading Change prior to the race. These gentlemen cut creatively against the grain, suggesting Leading Change had clear moxie. Kudos, gentlemen, well played.
For his part, Renegade who did his level best to run dead last but wasn’t able to get up in the mix with his rival Golden Tempo, held on to finish eighth, seems to be heading back to school.
These gentlemen cut creatively against the grain, suggesting Leading Change had clear moxie. Kudos, gentlemen, well played.
In the grind of the race, all did not go well for Golden Tempo or Renegade. Well in the rear, behind the main peloton by some twelve lengths coming into the backstretch, the pair seemed to grind heavily up into the far turn, by which point the Puma, some lengths off the lead, began an early move. Ahead of him, Napoleon Solo was leading the pack, battling through the middle of which, caught in some traffic as they turned out of the final turn the home stretch, were Leading Change and Manny Franco.
Golden Tempo and Jose Ortiz had by this point worked up through the pack, leaving Renegade seemingly with no gas left in the tank far behind them. Jockey Franco took Leading Change out to the right coming out of the final turn and got clear two lanes wide, and then, a furlong and a half out from the line, is when Leading Change flicked on his afterburners, leaving a striving Golden Tempo in the dust and burning steadily past Napoleon Solo to the wire. He won the Travers in the last four strides, leading Napoleon Solo by a head. It was breathtaking.
Leading Change’s breezy upset of the Triple Crown veterans Golden Tempo and Renegade, as well as the oncoming Sea Strike – whose odds the track money had loved all the way down to 7/2 by post time – brought renewed polish to Saratoga’s historic reputation as the “graveyard of champions." But the victory had more to it than that. The winner’s brilliant stretch run instantly made him the poster boy for bringing fine Thoroughbreds along to a proper level of racing maturity at their own rate.
Calling him lightly raced is an understatement. Not only was the Travers the third race and the first Grade 1 of his life, it was his first run at a mile-and-a-quarter. His sovereign ease down the stretch within his big run stands as a testament to excellent conditioning by trainer Brad Cox.
Trainer Cox as well as owner Sheikh al-Thani of Qatar and the winning jockey Manny Franco, who is having a stellar season at the Spa, should be commended. The win helped the sport in the sense of advancing the long-running debate about the maturity rates of Thoroughbreds. Living up to his name of leading a change, Leading Change was brought along gently, and has now delivered a season- and class-changing run.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
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