RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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See the full story · 1 sourcesHOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 18: Adley Rutschman #35 of the Baltimore Orioles runs to first base during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on July 18, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
There have been some rumblings that Adley Rutschman could be a trade target for the Rays following the 2026 All-Star Game. Rutschman and Drew Rasmussen were college teammates at Oregon State, while Bryan Baker was teammates with Rutschman in Baltimore before being traded to Tampa Bay last season. Two of the three Rays pitchers attending had a chance to throw to Rutschman during the Midsummer Classic, and Baker told reporters afterward that he and Rutschman have discussed the “hypotheticals of being teammates again.”
Adley is one of the better defensive catchers in the league and an above-average hitter. The Rays are roughly league average on both sides of the ball at catcher. Rutschman would improve the position, even if there are other areas of the roster with more pressing needs. He’s also under team control through the 2027 season.
What could it cost for Baker’s hypothetical to come true? And what is the opportunity cost of bringing in a catcher like Rutschman when there are other positions in greater need of reinforcements?
I like to use recent trades as a starting point to try to calibrate the cost to acquire a player. It’s pretty difficult in this care; plus catchers rarely get traded. The last time a catcher of Rutschmans’s caliber was traded was back when Sean Murphy and William Contreras were involved in a three-team deal in 2023. Unfortunately, Oakland accepted a return that most evaluators viewed as light, making it a difficult trade to use as a benchmark.
Because comparable catcher trades are so rare, the next best reference point is a controllable frontline starter. While the positions are obviously different, both represent premium assets that rarely become available. Freddy Peralta was one of the more recent high-end starters who was traded this past offseason. He went from Milwaukee to New York for a pair of back-of-the-top 100 prospects in Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. Sproat profiles as a number three or four type of starter and Williams as a fringy up-the-middle defender but maybe not an everyday guy. Peralta came with just one year of control, so his value was understandably less than what Rutschman’s value is now.
I think Rutschman could be acquired for a small package of players from the Rays. I would be surprised if the Rays were willing to move Theo Gillen for roughly a year and a half of control, particularly given the unknowns of if a season happens next year (due to MLBPA negotiations). The next tier of Rays prospects includes Nathan Flewelling and Brody Hopkins. I think it would take one of these guys plus another prospect in one of the next tiers below them. It’s hard to say exactly who would be included in this package, but the Rays certainly have the resources to acquire Rutschman if they really want him.
The bigger question isn’t whether Rutschman would make the Rays better – he obviously would. It’s whether catcher represents the best place to invest significant prospect capital. Second base has been one of the least productive positions on the roster, the outfield might still be in need of an impact bat, and the rotation will likely need reinforcements as several starters approach workload limits.
Sure, the Rays could decide to push their chips in by acquiring Rutschman, adding an impact second baseman such as Luis Arraez, and bolstering the rotation with another starter. This seems unlikely given the Rays’ tendencies to buy and sell at each trade deadline, keeping windows open today and in the future simultaneously, but they do have the prospect capital to make something like this a reality. The opportunity cost of trading for Rutschman is something to consider, and I think that exploring other more affordable catching options would be a better use of their resources while allowing them to make a more impactful addition at another area of need.
Erik Neander and his team will be incredibly busy for the next couple weeks, and I’m excited to see what kind of creative solutions they come up with to solve their roster puzzle.
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