RESOLVING THE LEDGER
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0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek on Wednesday in a video of the two playing basketball, recalling his two Iowa victories and encouraging voters to back Turek's bid for the U.S. Senate.
Iowa, a state that backed Obama in both of his campaign runs, emerged as a Republican stronghold over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. While Iowa remains a Republican-leaning state, Democrats see it as one of several pickup opportunities in their effort to win back the Senate majority.
The race will be a barometer of whether Democrats can regain ground in the Midwest after a decade of losses in the region. Polling points to a close race between Turek, a state legislator, and Representative Ashley Hinson. They are running to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to run for reelection. Democrats haven't secured a Senate seat in the state since Senator Tom Harkin's election in 2008.
Steffen Schmidt, emeritus professor of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek in an email, "The Iowa Senate race is as dead heat as I've seen."
He added that the endorsements, Trump for Hinson and Obama for Turek, "are a wash," noting that "Independents will be the deciding factor in this context."
Newsweek has reached out to Turek and Hinson’s campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday.
Turek, the Democratic nominee, is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state House member, first elected in 2022. In a video released Wednesday, Turek and Obama played a version of the basketball game “H-O-R-S-E,” with the letters “I-O-W-A.”
While shooting hoops, the two spoke about Iowans and their future, with Obama saying, “I know a little something about winning Iowa,” a reference to his 2008 caucus victory that springboarded his presidential campaign.
Turek said while playing, “Everywhere we go, urban areas, rural areas, people are ready for change.”
“Of all the things I’ve done in politics, Iowa was my favorite thing,” Obama continued. “There was just a magic about regular folks showing up in gyms like this, and just talking out, how do we move our state forward, how do we move the country forward.”
Obama ended the video emphasizing his endorsement, “I’ve seen enough. Not only did I get whooped. But you’ve got here, a man of character, somebody who knows how to win. Now the ball is in your court, Iowa. Let’s make sure that we send Josh Turek to the United States’ Senate."
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told Newsweek in an email Wednesday, “We have the race as Leans Republican, so we do view it as competitive, but it's still ultimately a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points, so it's a heavy lift for any Democrat.” Ernst, who was the first woman to represent the state in the Senate, won by 6.5 points in 2020.
Kondik added, “I doubt the Obama endorsement is all that meaningful. Obama did win the state twice, but it was a different state back then. Maybe it's partially a signal to donors?”
The race now pits Trump and Obama against each other, although neither may move the needle for independents. Trump has endorsed Hinson, who was first elected to represent the state in 2020, after serving in the state House and working as a journalist.
“I know Ashley well and she is a WINNER! A Loving Wife and Proud Mother of two sons, Ashley is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Iowa, and will continue doing so in the United States Senate," Trump said in a Truth Social post in September.
The party in the White House historically loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats have overperformed in special and state elections the past year, helping fuel optimism among some in the party for the 2026 November elections. In addition, the war in Iran has impacted Iowans and emerged as a voting issue. As Hinson, who backed the war, has addressed the deaths of Iowa service members, Turek has warned against a prolonged conflict that could draw the United States deeper into the region and drive up prices.
Schmidt told Newsweek in an email, "The unknown factor that could give the Democrat an edge is the terrible condition so many farms are facing. Tariffs, competition from China, expensive Diesel and gas prices suggest that many Republican voting farmers and rural folk could vote for a Democrat this time."
Democrats are still facing an uphill battle to take back control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms despite polls showing competitive races for Republican-held seats in states like Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas with less than 100 days to go. Bernadette Breslin, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, previously told Newsweek , “Democrats like Troy Jackson and Josh Turek are the new faces of the Left’s socialist takeover, campaigning on an agenda to raise taxes, green-light reckless spending, and make life even less affordable for American families."
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Iowa race in June from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican.”
Polling averages suggest a competitive contest. RealClearPolling's average shows the race tied at 46.7 percent each, while other polling averages give Hinson a narrow advantage.
A Fox News poll found Turek inching ahead of Hinson, 50 percent to her 46 percent. The poll of 1,003 registered Iowa voters was conducted between June 23-27 and has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
Turek leads among women with a college degree (65 percent), independents (59 percent), urban voters (59 percent), and young voters under 30 (55 percent), according to the poll. It found Hinson with support from White evangelical Christians (67 percent), men 45 and older (55 percent), veterans (52 percent), and men without a college degree (52 perc...
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