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AIPROPX ReportYahoo Sports · 1h ago
Why a fifth-round pick not signing with Brewers has ramifications
The Milwaukee Brewers got thrown an unexpected curveball with news that fifth-round draft choice Aidan Knaak was returning to Clemson for his senior season , disrupting what was available to the Brewers in the 2026 draft signing process.
The Brewers still signed 17 of 20 players in the 2026 class, including the top four picks, but there's reason to believe this was an unexpected development and might have prevented the Brewers from signing another player later in the draft.
Maiorana it is! Bit of a surprise to me, but a talented arm up to 96 with a 3000 RPM sweeper. Definitely nice to add him to the system. https://t.co/I2hRGxn0Ql pic.twitter.com/ih6JKHtnV0
— Spencer Michaelis (@smichaelis234) July 27, 2026 Here's what to know about it:
Why did Aidan Knaak decide not to sign?
Knaak, who has two years of eligibility remaining ( thanks to the new NCAA "5 for 5" rule ) at Clemson University, decided to head back for his senior year.
Knaak had a 5.81 ERA but was the Tigers' ace and made the all-ACC first team in 2024 and 2025.
Knaak's father, Rob , said that his son "has made significant changes to his mechanics and is excited for the opportunity to return and compete again at the highest level."
Clemson finished tied with Duke for last place in the ACC last year. Jim Callis of MLB.com said Clemson was able to reel Knaak back with a "strong NIL offer."
Is it common for drafted players not to sign and return to college instead?
Not in the current system. Only two players in the first 10 rounds didn't sign with the MLB teams that drafted them: Knaak and Cleveland Guardians second-rounder Logan Schmidt, and he's a different case as a high-school player with a commitment to LSU. Cleveland didn't have a ton of available "overslot" money to offer Schmidt, and it reads more like a situation where the Guardians didn't meet Schmidt's asking price. The Guardians will get a make-good pick in next year's draft, but the Brewers won't.
Only two players from the first 10 rounds didn't sign across MLB in 2025, and four didn't sign in 2024. Only one didn't sign in 2023, three in 2022 and three in 2021.
Why won't the Brewers get a pick in next year's draft to make up for not signing Knaak?
Only players who fail to sign from the first three rounds give teams an opportunity to get a similar pick in the following draft. So the Brewers are simply out a draft pick, not to mention out the bonus money attached to the pick.
Why is it so strange that Knaak would return to school?
Though it stands to reason Knaak could improve his performance and attract a similar or greater amount of attention in next year's draft, he's going to be 22 in September and will lose some negotiating leverage with an extra year of college baseball.
Everything we know about the process would suggest MLB teams have deals mostly in place before even selecting players in the first 10 rounds, meaning somewhere along the way, Knaak's circumstances changed and he either changed his mind or there was some sort of communication breakdown, and it was costly.
Why does Knaak not signing hurt the Brewers so much?
To be fair, it's not precisely clear how much this hurts the Brewers.
The "slot" system involves assigning dollar amounts to every pick in the draft. The Brewers' first-round pick (used on Trey Ebel) had a "slot value" of $3.696 million. The second-round pick (Sawyer Strosnider) was a $1.353 million value. The third pick (Kyle Jones) was $770,600, and so on. Knaak's slot value was $425,400 in the fifth round.
Rather than players simply receiving the assigned slot value, all the money granted to the Brewers' picks in the first 10 rounds is put into a pool, and the Brewers can distribute it how they want. Ebel signed for $2.8 million, an "underslot" deal that allowed the Brewers to "save" the rest of his $3.696 million slot money and use it elsewhere. For Strosnider, the Brewers had to go "overslot" to sign him at $2.1 million (above the $1.353 million number), meaning some of the Ebel savings went there.
This is how the game gets played; the Brewers will save in some areas to afford others. Not only that, but every player in rounds 11-20 is given a value of $150,000, and anything over that amount must come from the pool. So the Brewers signing 13th-rounder Carson Hart for $380,000 counts as $230,000 against the pool. Signing Keaton Maiorana in the 15th round for $230,800 counts $80,800 against the pool.
Unlike some aspects of Major League Baseball, this is truly where teams are on even financial footing. They can't spend more than 5% beyond the pool or they face harsh penalties, such as loss of future picks. They can't simply dig into their coffers and agree to pay more money, because that's less money you're allowed to spend on other players.
Teams almost always finish spending that pooled amount of money, plus the allowed 5% overage, within a matter of dollars.
But that's obviously a tricky puzzle to navigate. So teams will arrange deals before taking a player or, at the very least, will choose a player they know would be willing to sign in a certain range and skip over players they're not sure about.
Ebel might be making less than "slot," but he was projected to go later in the draft, so the Brewers knew they could pay him a little more than he expected and still wind up "saving" money for other players.
Because here's the thing: If a player in the first 10 rounds doesn't sign, the team loses that slot money from the pool. This makes sense – otherwise, a team would draft a player that requires a ton of money to sign, then draft additional guys it has no intention of signing (making them off-limits for other teams) and save that pool money for the big fish. But the player must sign for...
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